By Dan Lamothe
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China could be at war with the United States two years from now, a top Air Force general predicted in a bombastic and unusual memo to troops under his command, asserting a shorter timeline before potential conflict than other senior U.S. defense officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gen. Michael A. Minihan, who as head of Air Mobility Command oversees the service\u2019s fleet of transport and refueling aircraft, warned personnel to speed their preparations for combat, citing Chinese President Xi Jinping\u2019s aspirations and the possibility that Americans will not be paying attention until it is too late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI hope I am wrong,\u201d Minihan wrote. \u201cMy gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan\u2019s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States\u2019 presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi\u2019s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Minihan then directs airmen who are qualified to use a weapon to \u201cfire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most\u201d sometime in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAim for the head,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Minihan\u2019s memo encourages the thousands of troops under his command to prepare for war in several other regards. All personnel reporting to him should \u201cconsider their personal affairs\u201d and be more aggressive about training, he instructs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRun deliberately, not recklessly,\u201d he writes. \u201cIf you are comfortable in your approach to training, then you are not taking enough risk.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The memo,\u00a0first reported Friday by NBC News<\/a>, is dated Feb. 1 \u2014 which is still days away \u2014 and was distributed to Minihan\u2019s subordinate commanders. An Air Force spokeswoman, Maj. Hope Cronin, verified its authenticity, writing in a statement shared with media after the memo began circulating on social media that Minihan\u2019s order \u201cbuilds on last year\u2019s foundational efforts by Air Mobility Command to ready the Air Mobility Forces for future conflict, should deterrence fail.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n A Pentagon spokesman, Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, said Friday that the U.S. national defense strategy makes clear \u201cthat China is the pacing challenge of the Department of Defense\u201d and that U.S. officials are working with allies and partners to \u201cpreserve a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n A U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said that Minihan\u2019s comments \u201care not representative of the department\u2019s view on China.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Before taking over at Air Mobility Command in 2021, Minihan served in a variety of influential roles in the Pacific beginning in 2013. They include a stint as the deputy commander of Indo-Pacific Command, <\/strong>with purview of China and Taiwan, from September 2019 to August 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The general\u2019s memo coincides with an effort by the Pentagon to reset 20 years of counterinsurgency wars in the Middle East and as the Biden administration continues to equip Ukraine with billions of dollars in security assistance as it strives to fight off a Russian invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Senior U.S. officials have warned for some time that an ascendant China may launch an assault on Taiwan, which is governed independently. The Defense Department under President Biden and his predecessor, President Donald Trump, has declared China its primary long-term concern, citing Beijing\u2019s rapid military expansion and assertive behavior in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But U.S. officials have offered mixed messages on whether and when China might attempt to take Taiwan. In 2021, Adm. Phil Davidson, then the chief of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, predicted Beijing could make such an attempt by 2027. That timeline has since been dubbed \u201cthe Davidson window<\/a>\u201d by some national security scholars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n