{"id":6955,"date":"2023-07-13T04:09:20","date_gmt":"2023-07-13T04:09:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/?p=6955"},"modified":"2023-07-13T04:09:21","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T04:09:21","slug":"china-or-the-us-pakistans-choice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/china-or-the-us-pakistans-choice\/","title":{"rendered":"China or the US: Pakistan\u2019s Choice\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Furqan Khan<\/strong>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan is among the frontline states in the China-U.S. contest for influence in Asia. As Washington cements its strategic partnership with New Delhi, Islamabad\u2019s growing tilt toward Beijing is raising concerns in Western capitals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last month, the United States joined<\/a> India in calling out Pakistan for terrorism, indicating a clear shift in Washington\u2019s South Asia policy toward deprioritizing Pakistan. With India-U.S. relations entering a \u201ctransformational moment<\/a>,\u201d Pakistan\u2019s response to the great power rivalry is becoming clearer. Despite denouncing<\/a> repeatedly the idea of joining \u201cbloc politics,\u201d Islamabad appears to be pivoting toward Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Pakistan contemplates a binary choice between China and the United States, such a geopolitical trade-off carries significant risks, especially compared to the economic and strategic benefits that flow from a nuanced approach to great power competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Discord Leaks: Pakistan Tilts to China<\/strong>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In April, leaked\u00a0U.S. documents<\/a>\u00a0revealed that Pakistan\u2019s state minister for foreign affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar, had advised Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to avoid \u201cappeasing the West\u201d at the expense of a \u201creal strategic partnership\u201d with China. The memo, titled \u201cPakistan\u2019s Difficult Choices,\u201d argued that Pakistan can no longer try to maintain a \u201cmiddle ground\u201d between China and the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s sway in Pakistan has steadily increased over the past decade, so that Pakistan tops the list of countries \u201cmost exposed<\/a>\u201d to China\u2019s influence. Islamabad has repeatedly dismissed U.S. criticism over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Pakistan\u2019s relations with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, Pakistan declined<\/a> two consecutive invitations to attend the United States\u2019 Summit for Democracy \u2013 ostensibly because the events included Taiwan and excluded China \u2013 while attending similar events<\/a> on \u201cDemocracy\u201d and \u201cShared Human Values\u201d in Beijing. Meanwhile, Pakistan\u2019s Army Chief Asim Munir has visited China, while a visit to the United States is not even under discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistani Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed seemed to speak for many within Pakistan when he expressed\u00a0apprehension<\/a>\u00a0about the United States\u2019 role in Pakistan while endorsing a deepening of relations with China. He\u00a0suggested<\/a>\u00a0that instead of asking Pakistan to balance ties between China and the United States, Washington should dispense some balance between India and Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Faced with a lack of interest from the U.S. and its growing partnership with India, Pakistan\u2019s political leadership, intellectual community, and the public are increasingly convinced of the need to prioritize relations with China. Wearied by Washington\u2019s costly security-centric approach, Islamabad\u2019s turn toward China\u2019s economics-driven diplomacy offers greater hope for Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Making a Choice?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite that, there is a hesitancy to completely abandon Pakistan\u2019s relationship with the United States. In a recent interview<\/a>, Khar expressed Pakistan\u2019s concerns about the possibility of a complete rupture between China and the United States, which may force Pakistan into an undesirable binary strategic choice. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan\u2019s defense minister, echoed<\/a> similar sentiments, arguing that Pakistan should not be pushed to make difficult choices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While these statements emphasize Pakistan\u2019s reluctance to take sides, Khar\u2019s assertive stance on Washington\u2019s \u201cunnecessary\u201d insecurity about global leadership gives two key impressions. First, despite both China and the United States insisting that countries need not to choose between the two powers, Pakistan faces pressure to make a choice \u2013 and primarily from Washington rather than Beijing. Second, when faced with that decision, Islamabad appears to favor Beijing as its long-term partner, even at the cost of its strained relationship with the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the U.S. has tilted toward Pakistan\u2019s arch-enemy, India, forging regional coalitions such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) to counter China. Rallying allies against Pakistan\u2019s \u201call-weather\u201d friend China is a residual burden in the relationship; it is rather Washington\u2019s arming of India and the resulting disruption of regional strategic balance in South Asia that upsets Pakistan. As a result, all major and minor political players are compelled to prioritize Pakistan\u2019s relationship with China over that with the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khar\u2019s argument, from Pakistan\u2019s perspective, makes sense in the long term. The future of historically transactional Pakistan-U.S. relations is uncertain. In contrast, the trajectory of China-Pakistan ties, despite some recent bumps, remains positive, because of shared concerns about India and other economic and security convergences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, despite the geopolitical odds facing Pakistan, the notion that with China at its back Pakistan does not need to care about other relationships, especially with the United States, is misleading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relations With China: Necessary But Insufficient<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan\u2019s relations with China are unprecedentedly consistent, with both countries describing their ties as an \u201call-weather strategic cooperative partnership.\u201d China actively responds to Pakistan\u2019s security and economic needs, viewing Pakistan as an \u201cirreplaceable\u201d<\/a> friend. Sameer Lalwani, senior expert on South Asia at the United States Institute of Peace, calls the China-Pakistan partnership a \u201cthreshold alliance\u201d<\/a> that offers potential burden-sharing and interoperability during crises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, as Washington rowed back on military and economic aid to Islamabad and deepened strategic cooperation with New Delhi, China has pledged increased military and economic cooperation with Pakistan. Notably, China has delivered<\/a> four advanced frigates to Pakistan, with four stealth attack submarines set to be delivered by the end of 2023. China has remained Pakistan\u2019s largest trading partner for eight consecutive years and is also the country\u2019s biggest investor, despite political instability and a deteriorating security situation in the country.ADVERTISEMENT<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crucially, amid Pakistan\u2019s imminent default and slow progress with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China stepped in with a $1 billion loan. Owing to the active Chinese support, Pakistan\u2019s traditionally Western-oriented political and security elite embraced China as their preferred partner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, China\u2019s support has been less \u201call-weather\u201d when it comes to the burgeoning trade deficit that results from the unequal free trade agreements, which significantly favors China\u2019s exports over Pakistan\u2019s. Although CPEC \u2013 a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative \u2013 has been touted as an economic game-changer for Pakistan, the country still grapples with a crippling economic crisis, even a decade after the project\u2019s launch in 2013. Moreover, as the arrears of the Chinese power producers mounted, Beijing demanded repayment<\/a> and even reportedly considered arbitration against Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, Pakistani officials, including those in the military, need to realize that there are limits to this friendship. China would not simply write off Pakistan\u2019s debts; rather, the relationship is dictated by Chinese realpolitik<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given this track record, China has been a necessary partner, but too cautious in taking sole responsibility for Pakistan. In the past, China has preferred burden-sharing with the West in the political, economic, and security domains, and the future course of action from Beijing is unlikely to deviate significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relations With the US: Uncertain But Essential <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan has historically been the United States\u2019 \u201cmost allied ally<\/a>\u201d in the Cold War, and a \u201cMajor Non-NATO ally<\/a>\u201d in the recent war on terror. It was the only country to join<\/a> both the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization and Central Treaty Organization \u2013 two U.S.-led anti-communist groupings \u2013 in return for support against the purported Indian threat. However, as Washington grows wary of China\u2019s rise and aligns with India as a counterweight, Pakistan-U.S. ties have become increasingly turbulent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the last few years, the United States has deprioritized its relations with Pakistan. The Trump administration halted military cooperation; under the Biden administration, relations declined even further, particularly following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. In April 2022, Pakistan\u2019s then-Army Chief Qamar Bajwa asserted<\/a> that the country was forced to move toward China and Russia after the United States stopped providing weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the contrary, India has emerged as the United States\u2019 full-fledged strategic partner<\/a>, receiving critical and emerging technology, armed drones, and co-production of the GE F414 jet engines. Moreover, despite past and present counterterrorism cooperation between the U.S. and Pakistan, the unprecedented joint front<\/a> with India against Pakistan on terrorism during Prime Minster Narendra Modi\u2019s Washington visit has alarmed Islamabad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the floating notion in Islamabad that reliance on China necessitates degrading ties with the United States is untenable. The U.S. wields influence over international financial institutions; Washington\u2019s recent help<\/a> in securing an IMF agreement is case in point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, the United States remains Pakistan\u2019s largest export destination. Pakistan\u2019s exports to the U.S., European Union, U.K., and Canada account for 55 percent<\/a> of the total exports, whereas only 11 percent<\/a> of Pakistan\u2019s exports go to China Cumulatively, Pakistan enjoys a trade surplus of $5.4 billion<\/a> with the U.S. and Western countries, which starkly contrasts with the trade deficit of over $15 billion <\/a>in trade with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is a supplier, while the U.S. is a buyer, and annoying the latter is detrimental to Pakistan\u2019s economic interests. If Pakistan aims to increase its exports, the U.S. and Europe are the primary markets. Hence, despite substantial Chinese investment, for trade and economic reasons, the United States and other Western countries are still more relevant for Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, although currently suspended, Pakistan stands to benefit significantly from the U.S. military aid, which it may seek to resume in future.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan\u2019s threat perception of India and quest for support over its core issues, such as Kashmir, have shaped the trajectory of its great power relations. On the Kashmir dispute, China is closer to supporting Pakistan\u2019s position. Despite being a member state, China skipped<\/a> this year\u2019s G-20 tourism working group meeting in the disputed territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Washington is far from supporting Pakistan\u2019s position on Kashmir or even questioning India\u2019s human rights record in the region. Consequently, by deepening strategic cooperation with India to counter China, Washington has increasingly ceded ground to Beijing in Islamabad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States should aim at balancing between competing with China in political and strategic terms and pursuing tactical cooperation with Beijing on issues of immediate importance, such as preventing war between India and Pakistan and countering terrorism in Afghanistan. Pakistan understands Washington\u2019s concerns regarding China and India\u2019s role in its Indo-Pacific strategy. However, the United States must also consider the second-order effects of its competition with China on countries like Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Pakistan, a strategic courtship with China is necessary, but it alone is insufficient to address its economic and security challenges. Given limited alternatives, Pakistan also needs the U.S., an important economic partner, and traditionally a valuable security provider, to evade the impending crises at home and challenges abroad. Therefore, maintaining ambivalence, even when China is rising and the United States is no longer an unchallenged superpower, is crucial for Pakistan\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The unsettling debate around balancing will continue to influence Pakistan\u2019s policy circles as the China-U.S. competition intensifies. Currently, both China and the United States have refrained from openly pressuring Pakistan into taking sides. As long as Pakistan walks the tightrope of neutrality, preserves its strategic relevance in Washington, and diversifies the benefits of its partnership with Beijing, it can preserve its room for maneuver in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, if Pakistan\u2019s economic, political, and security interests sail overly into one great power at the expense of the other, it risks being forced into an undesirable moment of choice.

(Source: The Diplomat)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Furqan Khan Pakistan is among the frontline states in the China-U.S. contest for influence in Asia. As Washington cements its strategic partnership with New Delhi, Islamabad\u2019s growing tilt toward Beijing is raising concerns in Western capitals. Last month, the United States joined India in calling out Pakistan for terrorism, indicating a clear shift in Washington\u2019s South Asia …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":6956,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[172],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-172"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6955"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6955\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6958,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6955\/revisions\/6958"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6956"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}