An international crisis is just around the corner. Border dispute between China and India

Hamid Al-Kafai - Sky News Arabia

Repeated security incidents on the border between China and India threaten to worsen relations between Asia's two largest nuclear powers.

The most recent border incident between the two countries occurred on Dec. 9, and although it passed without casualties, a previous incident in 2020 left 24 people dead on both sides, 20 of them from India.

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The India-China border dispute is not new and has been going on since the turn of the century.

India claims Aksai Chin, located in China's Xinjiang region, while China in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, as part of the Tibetan territory currently under Chinese control.

The two countries' armies have clashed twice around the border, which is more than 2,000 miles long and stretches across rugged terrain such as the Himalayan mountain range.

The border was demarcated by Britain at the turn of the last century between India, which was part of the British Empire and Tibet, which was then not under Chinese control.

The first war took place in 1962, in which India was soundly defeated by "People's Liberation Army" Chinese.

The second war took place in 1975, but it was limited, despite the high casualties, which were estimated at 1,200 soldiers on both sides.

The two countries agreed after The 1975 War The two sides agreed not to resort to weapons on the border issue and to strip the border guards of any lethal weapons, and indeed there was no military friction between them until 2020, when 24 soldiers were killed on both sides.

Mutual accusations

Both sides say they are committed to not using weapons in the border area, but how were these soldiers killed if no weapons were used? Weapons Fiery?

Local media reported that the dead Indians were beaten with batons and tasers and most of them later succumbed to their injuries.

The latest incident occurred on December 9 when, according to Indian sources, a few hundred Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops entered the Indian side in the Tawang area, causing injuries on both sides, and using non-lethal weapons, such as nailed sticks and remote stun guns, in compliance with the protocol on the non-use of firearms.

Reports indicate that the recent friction is similar to what happened in 2020 in the Galuan region.

China commented on the incident by stating that Indian Army He illegally crossed the "de facto line of control" so there was friction between the two sides.

The issue is that the actual "line of control" is not clearly demarcated, as it passes through mountains, lakes, and rivers, can move this way and that way, and soldiers from both sides come face to face at many points.

China's increasing moves in the region, especially the construction of roads backed by military equipment and force, has alarmed India and prompted a military rapprochement with United States. However, this rapprochement has yet to rise to the level of an alliance.

Last month, for example, India Military maneuvers in the state of Uttarkhand, which borders China, for two weeks.

It has also reduced its trade with China and sought trade deals with Australia, the European Union, and other Western countries.

Experts believe that such military frictions are likely to escalate, especially with the increase in Chinese development work in the region, which India opposes or wants to emulate on the Indian side, given that most of the border areas are disputed between the two countries.

China could propose a solution by creating buffer zones on the border, but such a proposal is likely to be opposed by India.

India-China relations

was India-China relations But since the military friction in the Galwan region in 2020, meetings between the leaders of the two countries have been scarce, with only a fleeting encounter on the sidelines of the Bali G20 conference three years ago.

Sushant Singh, professor of political science and author of the book "Foreign Mission: The Indian Army's Daring Operations," in an article published by the Center for Policy Research in Delhi (CPR), that "ambiguity has become structural in the India-China relationship," meaning that the relationship could worsen under the current conditions.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argues that the chances of India-China relations improving are slim, but India seems reluctant to ally with Washington, despite their recent growing rapprochement.

The United States is seeking to provide India with advanced weapons so that it can confront China. Currently, most Indian weapons are Russian-made, and US sanctions on Moscow have weakened Russian arms sales.

Although India does not recognize unilateral sanctions, i.e. those not imposed by the United Nations, its ability to maneuver will be limited by the United States' ability to enforce these sanctions and punish countries that sell or buy Russian weaponCAATSA, the U.S. law that penalizes any country that deals in arms with Russia and Iran and North Korea and Venezuela.

India's violation of CATSA could cripple Indian defenses, as it would deny them access to Global Arms Markets.

The first victim of the violation of the law may be India's INS Vikrant aircraft carrier industry, as India has contracted with sanctioned Russian company Navskoy for this project.

The other issue India faces is that its weapons are likely to be used against China, which is currently an ally of Russia, and this may lead Moscow to refrain from supplying it with weapons in the event of a war with China, so it is in its national interest to acquire weapons from other sources.

Eric Garcetti, President Biden's nominee for ambassador to India, said in a statement quoted by The European Times: "India is located in a harsh geographical region, and if he takes office, he will redouble efforts to strengthen India's defense capabilities to protect its borders, defend its sovereignty and repel any aggression against it."

India and China are the largest Asian countries, the two most populous countries in the world, and vital For the world economyTheir harmony and cooperation with other countries in the field of environment and health is essential to the success of plans to combat pollution, climate change and infectious diseases, so any war between them would cause a serious economic, environmental and humanitarian catastrophe.