How does China make peace and bare its fangs at the same time?

Tessa Wong

Chinese fighter jets flew across the Taiwan Strait in a show of Chinese military might there on Saturday, just hours after Chinese President Xi Jinping sipped tea with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in Beijing to discuss peace in Ukraine and stopping the war there.

The Chinese drills, intended to threaten and intimidate Taiwan, began the day after French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Beijing, which signaled high diplomacy from China.

The apparent contradiction was the latest example of the two faces China has presented to the world, a peaceful international peacemaker on the one hand, and a ferocious dog baring its teeth in defense of what Beijing considers part of its territory on the other.

But can Beijing sustain this strategy?

On the diplomatic front, China has wasted no time since emerging from the coronavirus crisis. In the past few months, President Xi Jinping has met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and Beijing has hosted a number of world leaders, including the president of Brazil, who arrived in China this week.

The Chinese president also presented a 12-point proposal to end the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and sent a high-level envoy to Europe to present political visions for resolving the crisis.

Beijing also brokered the crisis between Saudi Arabia and Iran, one of China's most successful diplomatic moves in the Middle East, aided by the lack of U.S. involvement.

At the same time, China has unveiled various proposals for global security and development - a clear signal that it is courting the "Global South" as it did with the Belt and Road Initiative to connect China to the world, by pumping billions into developing countries.

China has begun to find replacements for controversial diplomat Zhao Lijian, promoting more moderate figures such as former Foreign Minister Wang Yi and current Foreign Minister Qin Gang, although President Xi Jinping has continued to encourage his envoys to display a combative spirit in speeches.

These diplomatic faces could position China as a major global political decision-maker and return to its origins of "rejuvenating the Chinese nation," a deeply nationalistic concept that seeks to restore the Middle Kingdom its central position in the world.

"President Xi Jinping recently made it clear that his vision for China's future (the Chinese Dream) began when he first came to power, which reflects the current Chinese leadership's confidence in its path and approach to modernization," said Dr. Zhang Xin, professor of political science and international relations at East China University.

"Mr. Xi Jinping knows that you can't rejuvenate the Chinese nation without a good economy," said Dr. Neil Thomas, a professor of Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

China needs to continue to grow while trying to achieve diplomatic leverage, which it cannot do if it isolates itself from the West, and it needs to maintain good economic relations through diplomacy and aggressive rhetoric.

But the main reason for China's recent diplomatic turmoil and outbursts is that it feels increasingly besieged.

Concerns in the West have led to stronger defense alliances such as QUAD and OAKS, and other moves to restrict China's access to advanced technology.

In March, Xi Jinping accused Western countries led by the United States of harassing and suppressing China, asserting that this brought unprecedented serious challenges to his country's development.

Ian Chung, a non-resident professor at the Carnegie China Center, explained that this feeling increased last year with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and strong ties within NATO.

"Beijing has realized that the U.S. has a lot of strong friends, and the Chinese feel this blockade more, so it gives them more motivation to get out of it," Ian Chung said.

This is why one of the key elements of China's strategy is to establish a "multipolar world" with multiple power centers.

Beijing sees this as an alternative to what it calls "American hegemony," which has increased tensions and prompted some countries to form alliances against it.

This was evident during Macron's visit to China, when the Chinese president encouraged Europe to think of itself as an "independent pole," echoing Macron's statements about Europe's "strategic autonomy."

While Beijing asserts that a more balanced distribution of power would make the world safer, others see it as an attempt to boost China's influence and trick countries into moving away from the U.S. path.

China frequently highlights the US foreign policy failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, while presenting itself as a country with no blood on its hands, which means it is a better candidate to lead the world. A common theme in Chinese rhetoric is that communist China has not occupied other countries or engaged in proxy wars.

But China has annexed southwestern Tibet, fought a war with Vietnam, and has been accused of land grabbing in recent border clashes with India and in maritime disputes with several countries in the South China Sea.

China views autonomous Taiwan as a separatist province and has vowed to retake it by force if necessary.

Will China's soft and hard strategy pay off?

Countries in the "Global South" and others not closely allied with China or the United States are likely to be welcomed.

"China is offering a non-coercive mediation strategy that will have broad appeal," said Dr. Zhang Xin, professor of politics and international relations at East China University.

"The idea of non-interventionism will have particular resonance in countries with authoritarian governments." According to Dr. Zhang Xin.

"Many countries don't focus on democracy and human rights, and China will be their advocate in global governance," said Dr. Neil Thomas.

"There are red lines they will not cross, as we saw in the UN vote on the Ukraine war, where most countries chose to condemn the invasion, while China abstained," Dr. Chung said.

U.S. allies continue to debate how to deal with China's new openness policy.

Some, such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who had a tougher tone with President Xi when she accompanied Macron on his visit to the Chinese capital, but others who are keen to maintain their countries' economic ties with China have been more open-minded.

During his trip to Beijing, Macron received a special reception from the Chinese, who greeted him with an elaborate military parade.

In an unprecedented move, Chinese President Xi Jinping accompanied him to the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, describing their relationship as "close friends."

"It would not be in Europe's interest to get involved in the Taiwan issue and get caught up in crises that are not ours," Macron later told reporters.

Macron has since defended his comments, saying, "Our alliance with the United States does not mean we become its vassals," in an indirect flirtation with Xi Jinping.

Europe has become the "central battleground" of U.S.-China relations, with its top concerns and priorities being who it supports, according to Dr. Thomas.

Macron's remarks were criticized by many, and Germany sent its foreign minister to Beijing to reinforce the EU's more hawkish stance on Taiwan.

"While Europe is hedging its bets between the U.S. and China, it knows that the best bet is still with the U.S.," Dr. Thomas said.
Beijing's latest military exercise - launched in response to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's meeting with US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy last week - saw Beijing deploy a range of military tactics, sending warplanes and ships and simulating attacks to encircle and besiege the island. Taipei says Beijing has stepped up incursions into its air defense zone in recent years, with Chinese military aircraft conducting hundreds of sorties every month.Analysts say such moves undermine China's claims to be a peacemaker, while others see it as military aggression. Beijing insists these are defensive measures and therefore an internal affair. Dr. Chung says a war on Taiwan would have negative effects globally, as Taiwan produces 60% of the world's semiconductors and sits at the crossroads of the busiest shipping lanes and submarine communications cables connecting Europe to Asia.China also cannot ignore the fact that if it launches a war, it will be at least partially blamed for destabilizing Asia. Most observers believe that China has no intention of invading Taiwan anytime soon, but the concern is that escalated military action could lead to a serious miscalculation and war with America, given that Washington is committed to providing military and defense assistance to Taiwan if the island is attacked."Xi Jinping is trying to revive China's diplomatic presence while projecting strength on the Taiwan issue, and it will be very difficult to walk the line between these goals as more countries become more concerned about China's ability to attack Taiwan." As Beijing escalates its campaign to win global support, it will find its actions under increasingly strict scrutiny, and soon it may be forced to choose - between a dove of peace or a ferocious dog.

(Source: BBC)