American site: 10 constraints prevent China from attacking Taiwan in the near future

The Diplomat, a U.S.-based website, published Report In it, he talked about the reasons why China will not invade Taiwan in the near future.

It is undeniable that the unification of Taiwan with mainland China was an integral part of Chinese President Xi Jinping's goal of "the great renaissance of the Chinese nation." However, some scholars emphasize that Beijing has no intention of forcing unification now or anytime soon.

At the 20th Party Congress in October 2022, Xi (General Secretary of the Communist Party of China) emphasized that Beijing "will not renounce the use of force" to unify Taiwan with the PRC.

The report, written by Hemant Adlakha, professor of Chinese at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, states that China will instead choose to pressure Taiwan using a range of methods to encourage unification and may launch more preferential policies, according to Professor Ding Yuwen, a board member of the China Center for Reform and Development (CCRD).

Deng added that Beijing will try to start discussing the "one country, two systems" framework with Taiwan's ruling and opposition parties.

Restrictions

The Diplomat outlines 10 practical constraints that make it highly unlikely that China will resort to the use of force, the first of which is that war is costly for both the Chinese and Taiwanese sides.

Second, the decline of China's export markets in Europe and the United States, China's main immediate priority, as well as Taiwan's formidable military power.

The third obstacle is that Xi's goal of consolidating the power base within the party is far from being realized, while the fourth reason is that although the Chinese leader would support a low-cost blitzkrieg on Taiwan, such a war could spiral out of his control.

The website points out that the fifth obstacle is that Taiwan cannot be compared to Ukraine in terms of military power, as it is armed with the latest weapons, unlike Ukraine, which contains fertile plains and plateaus, and consists of more than 100 islands.

The sixth limitation is the potential for U.S. involvement in the Sino-Taiwanese conflict. The seventh is the Japanese dimension, as the government in Tokyo has reaffirmed that it will help Taiwan in its territorial defense.

The eighth constraint that will prevent Beijing from resorting to force is that President Xi is well aware of the West's solidarity with Ukraine in its crisis, and his quest to unify Taiwan with his country would jeopardize his relations with the European Union - China's main trading partner - and the United States and Japan.

Ninth, Taiwan, while perhaps not included in the series of U.S. multilateral security and trade initiatives, is seen as an integral part of the defense mechanisms provided by the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between America, Japan, Australia, and India, also known as Quad, and the Trilateral Security Agreement between Australia, Britain, and America, also known as AUKUAS.

The Diplomat's tenth limitation is that it is highly unlikely that Beijing would resort to a measure that would force countries in Southeast Asia to consider China as an enemy.

Source: American Press