{"id":5936,"date":"2023-03-25T15:48:16","date_gmt":"2023-03-25T15:48:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/?p=5936"},"modified":"2023-03-25T15:49:11","modified_gmt":"2023-03-25T15:49:11","slug":"china-thinks-its-diplomatically-isolating-taiwan-it-isnt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/china-thinks-its-diplomatically-isolating-taiwan-it-isnt\/","title":{"rendered":"China thinks it's diplomatically isolating Taiwan. It isn't"},"content":{"rendered":"

Eric Cheung
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taipei, Taiwan CNN\u00a0\u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the Honduran President announced last week her country planned to establish diplomatic ties with China, the ripples were felt far beyond this Central American country of population 10 million. To many, it was the latest confirmation of China\u2019s growing clout on the world stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decision by President Xiomara Castro means Honduras will have to sever its relationship with Taiwan, the island democracy that for much of the past 50 years has been locked in a battle for diplomatic recognition with China, its far larger Communist-ruled neighbor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China claims Taiwan as its territory, and has repeatedly refused to rule out taking the island by force, but the pressure it heaps on Taiwan is not limited to threats about invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also exerts diplomatic pressure, by insisting that any country wanting official ties with the world\u2019s second largest economy must at the same time refuse to recognize Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, a dwindling pool of nations are willing to hold diplomatic relations with the island democracy of 23.5 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before Castro\u2019s announcement, Taiwan had just 14 diplomatic allies \u2013 down from the 56 it had in 1971, when it lost recognition from the United Nations, and down from 22 when its President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And given that most of Taiwan\u2019s remaining allies are small nations in Latin America and the Pacific \u2013 with all of the world\u2019s powerful economies having switched decades ago \u2013 it would be easy to paint Castro\u2019s announcement as the latest nail in the coffin for Taiwan\u2019s aspirations for relevance on the world stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s the narrative China might like to believe \u2013 and the version of events that is often repeated in the international media every time Taiwan loses another diplomatic ally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But a growing body of experts are challenging that received wisdom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Honduras
Honduras President Xiomara Castro addresses the United Nations General Assembly in New York, US, on September 20, 2022.Amr Alfiky\/Reuters\/File<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yes, they say, officially Taiwan may appear to be losing the diplomatic battle, constantly waving goodbye to yet another diplomatic mission. But look deeper and Taiwan has been increasing its influence across the globe by developing close \u2013 though unofficial \u2013 ties with western countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Lev Nachman, an assistant professor in politics at National Chengchi University, put it, \u201cTaiwan\u2019s diplomatic allies do offer meaningful support for Taiwan, such as allowing official visits to happen. But we often ask, if one day Taiwan has zero formal diplomatic allies, what would really change? And the answer is not that much.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unofficial alliances<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Take for instance the island\u2019s relationship with the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US may have withdrawn its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan back in 1979, yet today its unofficial relationship appears as strong as it has been in decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lack of diplomatic ties did not put off then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi from making a controversial visit to Taipei in August \u2013 a visit China responded to angrily by holding unprecedented military drills and firing missiles over the island.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nor has it dissuaded incumbent US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy from planning to meet Tsai in early April, when she plans to transit the United States<\/a> en route to Central America, in another trip that is widely expected to raise China\u2019s hackles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there are the advances Taiwan has been making in Europe in recent months \u2013 breakthroughs that seem \u201cdiplomatic\u201d in all but name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Accelerated by Russia\u2019s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and fears about another autocracy\u2019s designs on democratic Taiwan, various European countries have acted in ways suggesting they are supportive of China\u2019s smaller neighbor, even if the Vatican City is its only official ally on the continent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This month, a minister from Germany, Europe\u2019s biggest economy, became the first in 26 years to visit Taiwan in a trip Berlin billed as an effort to enhance science and technological cooperation \u2013 and which it undertook despite Beijing\u2019s protestations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January, Taiwan\u2019s military disclosed an exchange with NATO in which one of its lieutenant colonels was sent on a six-month academic training program at an international military college in Italy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Taiwan
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen at the presidential office in Taipei on January 27, 2023.Carlos Garcia Rawlins\/Reuters<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Experts point out that the United States remains the single biggest guarantor of the island\u2019s safety in the face of a possible invasion by China and that the US supplies weapons to Taiwan every year \u2013 both of which it does without an \u201cofficial\u201d diplomatic relationship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also point out that the G7 nations (the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom) were all quick to voice concerns following China\u2019s post-Pelosi military drills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taiwan\u2019s role as a global leader in the supply of semiconductor chips \u2013 which are needed to power everything from laptops to advanced weapons \u2013 also makes it an important trading partner for many Western democracies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One Taiwan company, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, is one of Asia\u2019s most valuable businesses and accounts for 90% of the world\u2019s super-advanced chips, according to industry estimates cited by Reuters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such shows of support from Taiwan\u2019s \u201cunofficial relationships,\u201d they say, are far more important to the island\u2019s safety and economy than its formal alliances with smaller nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rise of a separate identity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The struggle between China and Taiwan dates back to the end of the Chinese civil war. The Chinese Nationalist government \u2013 or Kuomintang \u2013 fled to Taiwan following its defeat by Mao Zedong\u2019s Communists in 1949.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having set up a government on the island just four years earlier, it continued to call itself the Republic of China in Taiwan and for decades claimed itself as the legitimate representative of not only Taiwan but the Chinese mainland too. The Communist authorities on the Chinese mainland, meanwhile, created the People\u2019s Republic of China, and also claimed to be the legitimate representative of both sides of the Taiwan Strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taiwan, as the ROC, was represented in the United Nations until 1971, when the general assembly passed a resolution to recognize the Communist regime in Beijing as the \u201conly lawful representatives of China to the United Nations.\u201d The United States switched its recognition to Beijing in 1979, and most countries \u2013 many of them under pressure from Beijing \u2013 have followed suit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But since Taiwan\u2019s transition into a democracy in the 1990s, the island has downplayed its territorial claims over mainland China. Tsai, the current president, has said the future of Taiwan can be decided only by its people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De facto independence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But while Taiwan\u2019s economy and safety are not reliant on its official allies, experts and lawmakers say official relationships are still valuable \u2013 to a point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c(It helps) undermine Beijing\u2019s legal claim of sovereignty over Taiwan,\u201d said J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior adviser with the International Republican Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These countries also help to provide a voice for Taiwan in the international community, he said. Last October, for instance, 10 of Taiwan\u2019s diplomatic allies co-signed a letter to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres to criticize the UN\u2019s exclusion of Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Cole noted that all these allies were \u201csmall and not particularly influential\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey do provide a voice at the UN General Assembly, but their numbers are insufficient to sway the rest, who often vote in Beijing\u2019s favor,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wang Ting-yu, a lawmaker from Taiwan\u2019s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, said the core issue was that Beijing is attempting to \u201cdemolish the symbol of sovereignty in Taiwan\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The flags of Taiwan and Honduras outside the Taiwan Embassy in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, on March 15, 2023.Fredy Rodriguez\/Reuters\/FILE<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina claims to have sovereignty over Taiwan, but they have no control over us,\u201d Wang said. \u201cFor us, we can accept that you have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, while also having diplomatic relations with China. The only issue is China is blinding their own eyes in saying that Taiwan doesn\u2019t exist.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dollar diplomacy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But that symbol of sovereignty is coming at a growing cost for Taiwan\u2019s government due to a pressure campaign by Beijing that many experts label as \u201cdollar diplomacy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using China\u2019s huge market as both a carrot and a stick, Beijing has managed to peel away many smaller countries, while punishing those who refuse to budge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the Solomon Islands switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 2019, the Pacific country was offered $8.5 million in development funds by China to do so, according to Reuters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paraguay, the biggest country among Taiwan\u2019s remaining diplomatic allies, has on the other hand faced restrictions in exporting soy and beef to China. Its president, Mario Abdo Ben\u00edtez, openly called on Taiwan to invest $1 billion in his country last year so that it could continue to resist the \u201cenormous\u201d pressure on it to abandon the alliance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paraguay is holding its presidential election next month, and the opposition candidate has vowed to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan if they are elected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Johnny Chiang, a lawmaker from Taiwan\u2019s opposition Kuomintang party and a member of the parliament\u2019s Foreign and National Defense Committee, said Taiwan is spending roughly $100 million every year in infrastructural aid and development projects for its diplomatic allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe rise of China has become a very big challenge for our diplomacy,\u201d said Chiang, who served as the chairman of the Kuomintang between 2020 and 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wang, who is also a member of the Foreign and National Defense Committee, added that Taiwan is increasingly choosing not to match China\u2019s \u201cdollar diplomacy\u201d \u2013 preferring instead to underline shared values, like democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are using our diplomatic resources to help our official diplomatic allies. We offer humanitarian and training programs to benefit their people directly, but we never give cash to the officers or the policy-makers,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe especially cherish our partnership with our allies \u2013 in areas such as women\u2019s empowerment and vocational training, but we don\u2019t give money to governments,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The court of public opinion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the value of official allies may in many ways be largely symbolic to Taiwan, there is one area that losing friends \u2013 even symbolically \u2013 can come back to bite Taipei: in the court of public opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Taiwan\u2019s public vote for their next president in January next year, opposition parties are likely to seize on every loss of diplomatic recognition as ammunition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDomestically within Taiwan, you\u2019ll see political parties using Taiwan\u2019s losing of its diplomatic allies as a way to show how whatever party is in power is bad for Taiwan,\u201d said Nachman, the political scientist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt will be a hard look for the government both internationally and domestically to take these kinds of blows, because they do have symbolic value for a lot of people in Taiwan, and a lot of other countries also see this as a sign of weakness,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, in the court of public opinion, China\u2019s increasing assertiveness toward smaller nations can also backfire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the outgoing president of Micronesia \u2013 which China has tried to woo as part of its plan for a security pact with Pacific nations \u2013 accused China of engaging in \u201cpolitical warfare.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an explosive 13-page letter advocating the dissolution of diplomatic ties with Beijing, David Panuelo alleged China was preparing to invade Taiwan and had engaged in bribery, political interference and even \u201cdirect threats\u201d to ensure the Federated States of Micronesia remains neutral in the event of war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China dismissed the letter\u2019s contents as \u201csmears and accusations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chiang, the opposition lawmaker with the Kuomintang \u2013 a party widely seen as more friendly to Beijing \u2013 said the key to reducing China\u2019s growing pressure on Taiwan\u2019s diplomatic recognition was to improve communication across the Taiwan Strait and reduce hostility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He pointed out that during the eight-year term of former President Ma Ying-jeou, also from the Kuomintang, only one country severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you can manage the relationship between Beijing and Taipei well, then that will \u2013 to some extent \u2013 reduce the pressure from that kind of dollar diplomacy,\u201d he said. \u201cIf both sides can reach some sort of tacit understanding \u2026 then we will avoid that kind of bad situation.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eric Cheung Taipei, Taiwan CNN\u00a0\u2014\u00a0 When the Honduran President announced last week her country planned to establish diplomatic ties with China, the ripples were felt far beyond this Central American country of population 10 million. To many, it was the latest confirmation of China\u2019s growing clout on the world stage. The decision by President Xiomara …<\/p>","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":5937,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[172,183,218],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-172","category-asian-issues","category-reports-and-articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5936"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5940,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5936\/revisions\/5940"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ameforum.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}