A few days ago, U.S. President Joe Biden described Chinese President Xi Jinping as a dictator and Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he agreed with the assessment.
Blinken, who recently met with Xi and other Chinese leaders in Beijing to discuss the country’s contentious relations with the United States, told CBS’s “Face the Nation” show, “The president always speaks candidly; he speaks directly. He speaks clearly, and he speaks for all of us.”
Biden called Xi a dictator at a political fundraiser last week and China was quick to respond, saying the comment was “a blatant political provocation.”
“China expresses strong dissatisfaction and opposition,” Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, said at a regular news briefing last week. “The U.S. remarks are extremely absurd and irresponsible.”
Biden’s remark came just days after Blinken returned from Beijing, where he and
Chinese officials discussed trade relations, the Chinese spy balloon that was flown over the U.S. in February before Biden ordered it shot down, maritime passage through the Taiwan Strait and other issues.
“The main purpose [of the trip] was to bring some greater stability to the relationship,” Blinken said. “We have an obligation, and I think China has an obligation to manage that relationship responsibly, to make sure that the profound differences we have don’t veer into conflict.”
“But one of the things that I said to [my] Chinese counterparts during this trip was that we are going to continue to do things, and say things that you don’t like, just as you’re no doubt going to continue to do and say things that we don’t like,” Blinken told CBS.
During a ceremony at the Willard InterContinental Hotel in Washington on Wednesday, June 21, India became the 27th country to sign the Artemis Accords. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson participated in the signing ceremony for the agency and Taranjit Singh Sandhu, India’s ambassador to the United States, signed on behalf of India.
The Artemis Accords establish a practical set of principles to guide space exploration cooperation among nations, including those participating in NASA’s Artemis program.
“On behalf of NASA, on behalf of President Biden and Vice President Harris, we are very pleased to grow our partnership with India here on Earth and in space,” said Administrator Bill Nelson. “As we venture farther out into the cosmos than ever before, how we go is as important as what we do when we reach our destinations. We want to go in a peaceful way. We want to go in a transparent way. And we want to support each other in times of trouble. We are very grateful for India’s leadership in signing the Artemis Accords and look forward to all that we will accomplish together.”
“India is taking a landmark step in becoming a party to the Artemis Accords, a momentous occasion for our bilateral space cooperation,” said Sandhu. “We reiterate India’s commitment to space exploration underpinned by new levels of cooperation and progress. India is a responsible space power and places the highest importance on the peaceful and sustainable use of outer space. We are confident that the Artemis Accords will advance a rule-based approach to outer space. It also underlines our collective belief that exploration is not just the pursuit of knowledge – of knowing the unknown – but is a catalyst in advancing the betterment of humanity. In that sense, signing of these Accords highlights the evolution of a partnership into one for global good.”
NASA, in coordination with the U.S. Department of State, established the Artemis Accords in 2020 together with seven other founding member nations. The Artemis Accords reinforce and implement key obligations in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. They also reinforce the commitment by the United States and signatory nations to the Registration Convention, the Rescue and Return Agreement, as well as best practices and norms of responsible behavior that NASA and its partners have supported, including the public release of scientific data.
Additional countries will sign the Artemis Accords in the months and years ahead, as NASA continues to work with its international partners to establish a safe, peaceful, and prosperous future in space. Working with both new and existing partners will add new energy and capabilities to ensure the entire world can benefit from our journey of exploration and discovery.
When India overtook China in April to become the world’s most populous nation, observers wondered: Will New Delhi surpass Beijing to become the next global superpower? India’s birth rate is almost twice that of China. And India has outpaced China in economic growth for the past two years—its GDP grew 6.1 percent last quarter, compared with China’s 4.5 percent. At first glance, the statistics seem promising.
This question has only become more relevant as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington this week. From a U.S. perspective, if India—the world’s largest democracy—really could trump China, that would be something to shout about. India is China’s natural adversary; the two countries share more than 2,000 miles of disputed, undemarcated border, where conflict breaks out sporadically. The bigger and stronger China’s competitors in Asia, the greater the prospects for a balance of power favorable to the United States.
Yet before inhaling the narrative of a rapidly rising India too deeply, we should pause to reflect on four inconvenient truths.
First, analysts have been wrong about India’s rise in the past. In the 1990s, analysts trumpeted a growing, youthful Indian population that would drive economic liberalization to create an “economic miracle.” One of the United States’ most thoughtful India analysts, journalist Fareed Zakaria, noted in a recent column in the Washington Post that he found himself caught up in the second wave of this euphoria in 2006, when the World Economic Forum in Davos heralded India as the “world’s fastest-growing free market democracy” and the then-Indian trade minister said that India’s economy would shortly surpass China’s. Although India’s economy did grow, Zakaria points out that these predictions didn’t come true.
Second, despite India’s extraordinary growth over the past two years—when India joined the club of the world’s five largest economies—India’s economy has remained much smaller than China’s. In the early 2000s, China’s manufacturing, exports, and GDP were about two to three times larger than India’s. Now, China’s economy is about five times larger, with a GDP of $17.7 trillion versus India’s GDP of $3.2 trillion.
Third, India has been falling behind in the race to develop science and technology to power economic growth. China graduates nearly twice as many STEM students as India. China spends 2 percent of its GDP on research and development, while India spends 0.7 percent. Four of the world’s 20 biggest tech companies by revenue are Chinese; none are based in India. China produces over half of the world’s 5G infrastructure, India just 1 percent. TikTok and similar apps created in China are now global leaders, but India has yet to create a tech product that has gone global. When it comes to producing artificial intelligence (AI), China is the only global rival to the United States. China’s SenseTime AI model recently beat OpenAI’s GPT-4 on key technical performance measures; India has no entry in this race. China holds 65 percent of the world’s AI patents, compared with India’s 3 percent. China’s AI firms have received $95 billion in private investment from 2013 through 2022 versus India’s $7 billion. And top-tier AI researchers hail primarily from China, the United States, and Europe, while India lags behind.
Fourth, when assessing a nation’s power, what matters more than the number of its citizens is the quality of its workforce. China’s workforce is more productive than India’s. The international community has rightly celebrated China’s “anti-poverty miracle” that has essentially eliminated abject poverty. In contrast, India continues to have high levels of poverty and malnutrition. In 1980, 90 percent of China’s 1 billion citizens had incomes below the World Bank’s threshold for abject poverty. Today, that number is approximately zero. Yet more than 10 percent of India’s population of 1.4 billion continue to live below the World Bank extreme poverty line of $2.15 per day. Meanwhile, 16.3 percent of India’s population was undernourished in 2019-21, compared with less than 2.5 percent of China’s population, according to the most recent United Nations State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report. India also has one of the worst rates of child malnutrition in the world.
Fortunately, the future does not always resemble the past. But as a sign in the Pentagon warns: Hope is not a plan. While doing whatever it can to help Modi’s India realize a better future, Washington should also reflect on the assessment of Asia’s most insightful strategist. The founding father and long-time leader of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, had great respect for Indians. Lee worked with successive Indian prime ministers, including Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Ghandi, hoping to help them make India strong enough to be a serious check on China (and thus provide the space required for his small city-state to survive and thrive).
But as Lee explained in a series of interviews published in 2014, the year before his death, he reluctantly concluded that this was not likely to happen. In his analysis, the combination of India’s deep-rooted caste system that was an enemy of meritocracy, its massive bureaucracy, and its elites’ unwillingness to address the competing claims of its multiple ethnic and religious groups led him to conclude that it would never be more than “the county of the future”—with that future never arriving. Thus, when I asked him a decade ago specifically whether India could become the next China, he answered directly: “Do not talk about India and China in the same breath.”
Since Lee offered this judgment, India has embarked on an ambitious infrastructure and development agenda under a new leader and demonstrated that it can achieve considerable economic growth. Yet while we can remain hopeful that this time could be different, I, for one, suspect Lee wouldn’t bet on it.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has met Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo on a rare visit during which both sides pledged to deepen their strategic partnership.
Modi and el-Sisi “signed a joint declaration to elevate relations to a strategic partnership”, which they had first announced in January when el-Sisi visited New Delhi, a spokesman for the Egyptian president said on Sunday.
The two leaders agreed to boost investment by India – the world’s most-populous nation – in Egypt, which has the Arab world’s largest population and is now in the grips of an economic downturn.
Both sides said the bilateral talks covered areas including trade and investment, renewable energy, information technology and pharmaceuticals.
The two also discussed “further cooperation in G-20, highlighting the issues of food and energy insecurity, climate change and the need for Global South to have a concerted voice”, a statement from Modi’s office said, adding that the talks additionally addressed defence and security ties.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (right) gives the Order of the Nile medal to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Cairo, June 25, 2023 [Egyptian Presidency Handout/AFP]
El-Sisi welcomed Modi at the presidential palace in Cairo and bestowed upon him the country’s highest honour, the Order of the Nile, as the two leaders affirmed their “mutual commitment” to strengthen relations.
This would include “increasing high-level visits”, facilitating direct flights between the capitals, and “developing Indian investments in Egypt”, according to the presidency in Cairo.
Last January, the two leaders agreed to increase Indian investments in Egypt, which currently stand at more than $3.15bn, including through a potential “dedicated land area for Indian industries in the Suez Canal Economic Zone”.
Those projects include a $12bn green hydrogen plant to be built by Indian firm ACME.
India is already Egypt’s seventh-largest trading partner, according to data from Cairo’s central bank, with trade reaching $7bn last year.
‘Historic visit’
Modi, who arrived in Cairo on Saturday, is the first Indian prime minister to pay a state visit to Egypt in more than two decades. His two-day stop came six months after el-Sisi was in New Delhi as an official guest during India’s Independence Day.
Modi also invited the Egyptian leader to attend a summit of the Group of 20 leading rich and developing countries, which India will host in September.
Earlier this year, both countries agreed to boost trade cooperation. India is one of the top five importers of Egyptian products, including crude oil and liquefied natural gas, salt, cotton, inorganic chemicals and oilseeds. Notable Indian exports to Egypt include cotton yarn, coffee, herbs, tobacco, lentils, vehicle parts, ships, boats and electrical machinery.
Following his talks with el-Sisi, Modi visited a historic mosque, Cairo’s Al-Hakim, which was recently renovated with the help of the India-based Dawoodi Bohra community. He also paid tribute to Indian soldiers who died in World War I and are buried in the Heliopolis War Cemetery in Cairo.
The two governments signed agreements in the fields of agriculture, archaeology, antiquities and competition law, said Arindam Bagchi, a spokesman for India’s Ministry of External Affairs.
“My visit to Egypt was a historic one. It will add renewed vigor to India-Egypt relations and will benefit the people of our nations,” Modi wrote on Twitter before departing for New Delhi.
India has said it will give a naval warship to Vietnam in the latest signal of tightening defense ties between the two countries, which share concerns about China’s assertiveness.
The announcement that New Delhi will deliver the Indian Missile Corvette INS Kirpan to the Vietnamese navy was made following a meeting between Indian Defense minister Rajnath Singh and his Vietnamese counterpart, General Phan Van Gang, in New Delhi on Monday.
“A missile corvette is a small warship used mainly for the purpose of coastal defense,” according to Rahul Bedi, an independent defense analyst.
In a statement, the Indian government said that giving the warship to Hanoi would be “a milestone in enhancing the capabilities of Vietnam People’s Navy.”
The focus of the Vietnamese defense minister’s visit was on building military ties with New Delhi. He also discussed ways to enhance defense industrial capabilities by cooperation in defense research and joint production, according to the statement.
Although the two countries have had a strategic partnership since 2016, it has gained momentum since last year when they signed a landmark military logistics pact that would enable their militaries to use each other’s bases for repair and replenishment of supplies and make it easier to arrange visits of warships, military aircraft and personnel to each other’s shores. India also gave 12 high-speed guard boats to Vietnam last June under a $100 million line of credit extended by India.
Building defense cooperation with Vietnam is part of New Delhi’s efforts to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific region, according to analysts. India has been engaged in a military standoff with China along the disputed Himalayan borders for the last three years and is also concerned about Beijing’s expanding footprint in the Indian Ocean where China has built infrastructure projects in countries like Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Pakistan.
In Hanoi, there are worries about Chinese warships and survey vessels entering Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone. Based on what Beijing says are old maps, China claims almost the entire South China Sea as its territory including waters that are claimed by Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries.
Last month, Vietnam urged China to withdraw a survey ship and escorting coast guard vessels that entered its waters. They left after operating for almost a month.
“China’s aggressive behavior in South China Sea and even along India’s border, has alerted every country in the Indo-Pacific on how best to add to their capabilities to handle China,” according to Chintamani Mahapatra, founder of the Kalinga Institute of Indo Pacific Studies in New Delhi. “The underlining factor is that China has sent alarm bells to all countries. And since no country can defend itself alone against Beijing, it is natural that middle powers like India, Vietnam and Australia, would forge security ties between themselves and with a bigger power like the United States so that they are not bulldozed by China.”
India had also proposed selling its indigenously developed supersonic missile systems to Vietnam several years ago, but progress on that deal has been slow, according to defense analyst Bedi.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet President Joe Biden on Thursday during his first state visit to the U.S.
High on the agenda will be deepening of defense ties, partnerships in technology and India’s role in the Indo-Pacific.
Ties between India and the U.S. are at a turning point and the relationship between the two nations have improved in the last decade, said Harsh V. Pant, vice president of studies and foreign policy at Observer Research Foundation, a Delhi-based think tank.
“This is a very important visit, it is as much about India reaching out to the U.S., as it is about the U.S. reaching out to India,” Pant said.
“This visit symbolizes the unwavering commitment to deepening ties and signifies the immense potential for both countries to collaborate amidst global challenges,” Farwa Aamer the director of South Asia initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said.
“For many in India and the U.S., the visit is a testament to the promise and high expectations for the future of U.S.-India collaboration — one of shared prosperity,” Aamer said.
The U.S. is looking at India as a partner it can rely on, but its partnership will be very different since India is not an ally, Pant told CNBC.
“The U.S. is not used to having partners that are not allies, but is willing to look at its partnership with India differently — one that is relatively independent minded but will help American priorities as well,” he said in a phone interview.
Strengthening defense ties
India and Russia have long shared a steadfast relationship, with India relying heavily on the Kremlin for oil and military weapons.
The South Asian nation is the world’s largest buyer of Russian arms, accounting for approximately 20% of Russia’s current order, Reuters reported.
“India has been too dependent on one country and that is not good, and although dependence has dropped from 80% in the 1990s to about 65% now, dependence is still huge,” Pant pointed out.
However, because of the war in Ukraine, Russia has not been able to send critical defense weapons it had promised India, pushing the Indian military to look to others — such as the U.S. — for supplies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaders’ summit in Samarkand on Sept. 16, 2022.
Alexandr Demyanchuk | Afp | Getty Images
Still, analysts are optimistic that the meeting between Biden and Modi could lead to more weapons agreements.
India has long been interested in buying SeaGuardian drones from the U.S., but the hoped-for deal that could be worth between $2 billion to $3 billion has been long hampered by “bureaucratic stumbling blocks,” Reuters reported.
The deal could still be brought back to the table.
“India’s Ministry of Defense has reportedly approved the purchase so it seems likely. The U.S. would like this to go through,” Manjari Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations told CNBC.
“It would be important for the partnership — only a few military allies and NATO countries have this drone, and the U.S. is particular about whom it sells U.S. weapons and technology to.”
She highlighted that now is an important time for the deal to come through as it will draw “India closer into the U.S. defense orbit, and is a step away from India’s dependence on Russian arms and equipment.”
India is undermining its strategic options by thinking it can continue to rely on Russia, Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
“It wants to try to keep a wedge between Russia and China because it doesn’t want to contemplate the idea of Russia and China both arrayed against it. Then you throw Pakistan in there and things look really dire from the Indian perspective,” Curtis told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The drones will also enhance the Indian armed forces “intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance capabilities” that will aid the country in securing their borders with China and Pakistan, Karthik Nachiappan, research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore said.
Tensions between India and China over the disputed border in the Himalayan region has been ongoing since the 1950s with no end in sight. Twenty Indian soldiers were killed in June 2020 in hand-to-hand combat with Chinese troops, followed by another clash in December 2022.
But India wants to “go beyond a buyer-seller relationship,” with the U.S., Pant said adding that India is working toward a “co-production and co-development relationship” with the U.S. so it can build its own domestic manufacturing defense base.
Private sectors in the U.S. could also start making more significant investments in India, with the two countries set to work together on producing fighter jet engines, said Pant.
“There’s a change in the way the U.S. looks at India, and defense will be a beneficiary of that. India will definitely be looking to reduce its dependence on Russia, and that will be quite an extreme move,” he added.
Without mentioning China, the White House said in May the visit will “strengthen our two countries’ shared commitment to a free, open, prosperous, and secure Indo-Pacific and our shared resolve to elevate our strategic technology partnership, including in defense, clean energy, and space.”
“Both the United States and India share the objective of not having an Asia that is dominated by China, or an Indo-Pacific region that is subject to Chinese coercion and assertiveness,” said Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment in a Q&A report.
Energy: Reliance on Russian oil
Although India’s purchase of Russian weapons could fall, the same can’t be said for oil.
Russian oil currently accounts for almost 20% of India’s annual crude imports, a significant increase from just 2% in 2021, Reuters reported.
Oil prices were extremely volatile at the start of the Ukraine war in February last year, spiking to $100 for the first time since 2014 . But India has continued to buy cheap Russian oil since and continues trading with the country despite global sanctions on the Kremlin.
“India has become very close to the West in the last five to 10 years, but it understands that it cannot simply detach from Russia,” Amit Ranjan, research fellow at the NUS Institute of South Asian Studies said.
“Russia is an old friend of India, and India understands the importance of the relationship … Oil is an important piece of that relationship,” Ranjan said.
Technology: Diversifying from China
Partnerships in technology will be also be top on the agenda for Modi.
“I think the technology issues have become so critically important, as we see China making advancements and hear about China’s advancements with AI,” according to Curtis.
“In seeing how much China is advancing, the U.S. now understands the importance of really cooperating closely with India and trying to take advantage of the strengths on both sides,” she said.
“There are so many ways that the two sides can benefit from this increased technology cooperation—not to mention the progress that has been made on semiconductors. This has been a real area of focus for India and the United States, and I see that only growing as we move into the future,” Curtis added.
There will also be a flurry of business meetings with tech leaders.
Tesla chief Elon Musk met Modi in New York to discuss the EV company’s ambitions in India and the possibility of setting up a manufacturing facilities in the country.
Modi is also expected to meet other CEOs, including Apple’s Tim Cook, Google’s Sundar Pichai, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella and FedEx’s Raj Subramaniam at the White House state dinner on Thursday.
The growing partnership between India and the U.S. also gives room for the two nations to adopt a “China plus one” strategy and push more technology companies to set up operations in India, analysts told CNBC.
The U.S.-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology was announced in May last year. The iCET initiative aims to “elevate and expand” the two countries’ technology partnership and defense industrial cooperation, the White House said in January.
Pant said it points to the two countries’ willingness to work together — both in terms of research and development, and what both governments can do together.
In the last six months, more U.S. technology companies have set their eyes on India.
People are seen inside the Apple store after the launch at Jio World Drive mall in Mumbai, India, on April 18, 2023.
While Amazon Web Services, the company’s cloud computing unit, announced in May that it would invest $13 billion in India by the end of this decade, Reuters reported.
“India and the U.S. are framing a relationship that can respond to 21st century challenges, and China will be watching very carefully,” Pant said. “The two countries have already identified what their strengths are and are articulating a much ambitious agenda for that.”
أعلنت قطر، الثلاثاء، أنها وقعت اتفاقية مع مؤسسة البترول الوطنية الصينية “سي أن بي سي” لتزويدها الغاز الطبيعي المسال لمدّة 27 عامًا، في ثاني اتفاقية طويلة الأمد مع الصين في أقلّ من عام.
وتشكّل الدول الآسيوية (الصين واليابان وكوريا الجنوبية في المقدمة) السوق الرئيسية للغاز القطري، الذي تهافتت عليه الدول الأوروبية بشكل متزايد منذ بدء الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا.
وقال الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة “قطر للطاقة” وزير الدولة القطري لشؤون الطاقة، سعد بن شريدة الكعبي خلال مؤتمر صحفي عُقد في الدوحة، إن بموجب الاتفاق “ستورد قطر أربعة ملايين طن سنويًا من الغاز الطبيعي من مشروع توسعة حقل الشمال الشرقي إلى الصين على مدى 27 عامًا”.
وأضاف “هذه ستصبح ثاني اتفاقية بيع وشراء للغاز الطبيعي المسال إلى الصين ضمن مشروع توسعة حقل الشمال الشرقي”.
وكانت قطر وقّعت في نوفمبر الماضي، مع شركة النفط الصينية العملاقة “سينوبك”، اتفاقية مماثلة لتزويدها أربعة ملايين طن سنويًا من الغاز الطبيعي لمدة 27 عامًا. واعتُبر العقد آنذاك “الأطول في تاريخ صناعة الغاز المسال”.
وأعلن الكعبي الثلاثاء توقيع اتفاقية أخرى لبيع وشراء أسهم تنضم بموجبها مؤسسة البترول الوطنية الصينية “إلى عائلة الغاز الطبيعي المسال في قطر شريكًا في مشروع توسعة حقل الشمال الشرقي”، أحد جزئَي أكبر حقل للغاز الطبيعي في العالم.
وأوضح أن بموجب هذه الاتفاقية “ستحوّل قطر للطاقة إلى شركة “سي أن بي سي” حصة تبلغ 5 في المئة من ما يعادل خط إنتاج مكافئ واحد من مشروع توسعة حقل الشمال الشرقي بسعة ثمانية ملايين طن سنوياً”.
وفي أبريل، أصبحت “سينوبك” أول مجموعة آسيوية تحصل على حصة 5 في المئة في مشروع قطر لتوسعة حقل الشمال الشرقي.
وتعمل قطر على مشروع توسيع حقل الشمال، أكبر حقل للغاز الطبيعي في العالم، الذي يمتدّ تحت مياه الخليج حتى الأراضي الإيرانية ويضمّ حوالى 10 بالمئة من احتياطات الغاز الطبيعي المعروفة في العالم، بحسب تقديرات شركة “قطر للطاقة”.
ويُتوقع أن يساعد المشروع الذي تقدّر قيمته بـ28,75 مليار دولار، قطر في زيادة إنتاجها من الغاز الطبيعي المسال بأكثر من 60 بالمئة، ليصل إلى 126 مليون طن بحلول العام 2027.
علاقات “متميّزة”
وخلال مراسم توقيع أُقيمت في الدوحة، الثلاثاء، رحّب الكعبي بـ”العلاقات الثنائية المتميّزة بين جمهورية الصين الشعبية ودولة قطر”.
والصين أكبر زبون للغاز الطبيعي المسال في قطر، وأحد أكبر مستوردي موارد الطاقة في العالم.
من جهته، اعتبر رئيس مجلس إدارة مؤسسة البترول الوطنية الصينية، داي هوليانغ إن التعاون في مشروع حقل الشمال الشرقي يمثل “تحقيق هذا الإجماع الاستراتيجي بين قادة الدولتين” و”أساسًا متينًا للتعاون في مجال الطاقة بين الجانبين في العقود الثلاثة القادمة”، وفق ما نقل عنه بيان “قطر للطاقة”.
وتُعد قطر أحد المنتجين الرئيسيين للغاز الطبيعي المسال في العالم، إلى جانب الولايات المتحدة وأستراليا.
وتسعى الدولة الخليجية الثرية إلى إبرام عقود طويلة الأجل في خضم عمليات التحول إلى موارد الطاقة النظيفة، خصوصًا مع الدول الأوروبية التي امتنع معظمها عن ذلك رغم سعيها إلى إيجاد بدائل عن موارد الطاقة الروسية.
وأثناء توقيع اتفاقية مع بنغلادش لتزويدها بالغاز لمدة 15 عامًا مطلع الشهر الحالي، قال الكعبي “سنوقع صفقات أوروبية بعد الصيف”.
وكان قد حذّر الكعبي في مايو من أن “الآتي أعظم” بالنسبة الى أوروبا على صعيد موارد الطاقة.
في نوفمبر الماضي، أعلنت قطر أولى صفقاتها الكبرى لتوريد الغاز الطبيعي المسال إلى ألمانيا، لتزوَّد بموجبها أكبر قوة اقتصادية في أوروبا، بمليونَي طن من الغاز الطبيعي المسال سنويًا على مدى 15 عامًا على الأقل، بدءًا من 2026.
دعا رئيس الوزراء الصيني لي تشيانغ -خلال زيارة إلى برلين- اليوم الثلاثاء إلى تعزيز التعاون بين بلاده وألمانيا لمواجهة التحديات الاقتصادية، مؤكدا أن بكين تولي “أهمية كبيرة” للعلاقات مع الاتحاد الأوروبي.
وقال لي -في مؤتمر صحفي مشترك مع المستشار الألماني أولاف شولتز- إن التعافي الاقتصادي العالمي يفتقر إلى ديناميكية نمو، وإن الصين وألمانيا -بصفتهما بلدين كبيرين ومؤثّرين- ينبغي عليهما العمل معا بشكل وثيق من أجل السلام والتنمية العالميين.
وأكد المسؤول الصيني أيضا أن بلاده تولي “أهمية كبيرة للعلاقات بين الاتحاد الأوروبي والصين، ومستعدّة للعمل مع ألمانيا لتعزيز هذه العلاقات”.
وأجرى المستشار الألماني مع رئيس الوزراء الصيني محادثات في مرحلة حساسة، إذ إن برلين تعمل حاليا على إعادة رسم دبلوماسيتها تجاه بكين التي تظلّ شريكها التجاري الأول.
من جهتها، كشفت المفوضية الأوروبية اليوم الثلاثاء عن إستراتيجيتها للرد بشكل أقوى على المخاطر المحدقة بأمنها الاقتصادي، خاصة في وجه الصين.
وباتت نبرة ألمانيا تجاه الصين أكثر حدّة مقارنة بما كانت عليه في السابق، لا سيما في عهد المستشارة الألمانية السابقة أنجيلا ميركل التي سعت إلى تعزيز العلاقات التجارية مع العملاق الآسيوي.
المستشار الألماني شولتز (يمين) يستقبل رئيس الوزراء الصيني لي تشيانغ في برلين (رويترز)
شراكات متوازنة
ويعتمد الاقتصاد الألماني -الأكبر في أوروبا- على تنويع شركائه “لتقليل المخاطر” المرتبطة باعتماده المفرط على الصين.
غير أن الطريق نحو المزيد من السيادة في هذا المجال لا يزال طويلا، حيث تعتمد البلاد على الصين في المواد المتعلقة بانتقال الطاقة أو بالمكونات الإلكترونية.
من جانبه، قال شولتز -خلال المؤتمر الصحفي- إن “ألمانيا تراهن على توسيع العلاقات الاقتصادية في آسيا، ولا نريد أن ننغلق على شريك واحد؛ نريد شراكات متوازنة”، مؤكدا أنه “لا مصلحة” لبلاده في مقاطعة الصين اقتصاديا.
ودعا لي تشيانغ الدول التي ترغب في تقليل اعتمادها الاقتصادي على الصين إلى عدم استخدام سياسة “تقليل المخاطر” لممارسة التمييز ضد بلاده.
واختار المسؤول الصيني -الذي عُيّن رئيسا للوزراء في مارس/آذار الماضي- ألمانيا لزيارته الرسمية الأولى في الخارج، على أن ينتقل بعدها إلى فرنسا.
وفي خضم التوترات بين الولايات المتحدة والصين، تعد ألمانيا محاورا مميزا لبكين، خاصة في وقت تعاني فيه محركات النمو في البلاد لاستعادة الزخم بعد جائحة كوفيد-19.
واستأنفت بكين وواشنطن الحوار خلال زيارة وزير الخارجية الأميركي أنتوني بلينكن للعاصمة الصينية الأحد والاثنين الماضيين، لكن الخلافات لا تزال عميقة بين القوّتين العظميين.
ورأى الباحث في معهد ميركاتور للدراسات الصينية في برلين ميكو هوتاري أن “بكين تريد إظهار أن الحوار مع أحد شركائها التجاريين الرئيسيين مستمر”.
معا من أجل المناخ
وأسهمت التهديدات الصينية لتايوان والاتهامات الموجهة لبكين باضطهاد أقلية الإيغور وعدم إدانة الرئيس شي جين بينغ للهجوم الروسي على أوكرانيا؛ في تعميق الهوّة بين برلين وبكين.
كذلك تريد ألمانيا استخلاص الدروس من حرب موسكو على أوكرانيا، التي أظهرت اعتمادها المفرط على النفط الروسي، ولا تريد تكرار الخطأ نفسه في العلاقات مع الصين خلال عهد شي.
وفي أول “إستراتيجية للأمن الوطني”، قالت حكومة أولاف شولتز إن الصين رغم كونها “شريكا” لألمانيا تتصرف بطريقة “تتعارض مع مصالحنا وقيمنا”.
وأشارت إلى أن “عناصر المنافسة والخصومة ازدادت في السنوات الأخيرة” مع العملاق الصيني، لكنها أكدت الحاجة إلى الاستمرار في التعامل مع الصين على أنها “شريك”، وجعلها تتعاون في القضايا الدولية مثل مكافحة تغير المناخ.
وفي هذا السياق، شدّد المسؤولان على أن المناخ يوفر أرضية مشتركة للبلدين للتغلب على التوترات، وقال رئيس الوزراء الصيني “يجب أن تصبح الصين وألمانيا شريكين صديقين للبيئة”. في حين دعا شولتز البلدين “المصدرَين الرئيسيين لانبعاثات ثاني أكسيد الكربون” في العالم إلى أن “يتوليا معا” مسؤولية مكافحة تغير المناخ.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang came to Berlin with ten of his Cabinet ministers, and was received by Germany’s head of state, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. A day later, he met with Germany’s head of government, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and nine federal ministers.
At least in terms of the size of the delegations, these intergovernmental consultations were no different from those the German government has held in recent months with India and Japan, with Spain and the Netherlands. But that is where the similarities end.
Relations between Berlin and Beijing have deteriorated in recent years. Whether it’s Beijing’s “no limits friendship” with Moscow despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait or the repression of the Uyghur minority in China, the number of disagreements has been growing. And they have been further intensified by the geopolitical rivalry between China and the US.
An almost symbiotic relationship
Still, China is and remains Germany’s most important trading partner, ahead of the US. In the last 10 years, the exchange of goods with China has practically doubled to around €300 billion ($327 billion). The full contradictory nature of the relationship can be seen in the fact that official German documents now regularly refer to China as a partner, competitor and strategic rival all at the same time.
German government consultations with China began in 2011, initially emphasizing the partnership. In 2014, the relationship was even elevated to the status of a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” But since then, the mood has turned.
“We need to examine how sustainable the format of government consultations with China still is, which is actually only intended for particularly close strategic value partners,” said Michael Roth, a member of Chancellor Scholz’s center-left Social Democrat Party (SPD) and the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the federal parliament, the Bundestag.
No decoupling, but rather de-risking
Scholz has been more diplomatic. “De-risking yes, decoupling no,” he said, describing his position — which he shares with the major Western industrialized nations. “We have no interest in economic decoupling from China,” Scholz reiterated after talks with Premier Li Qiang in Berlin on Tuesday.
“Let’s continue the dialogue to understand each other well and face global challenges together,” Scholz added, addressing Li.
The chancellor said it was “a special concern” for the German government that Germany and China work closely together in the fight against climate change. The two countries are among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases and therefore bear a particularly large responsibility in the fight against global warming, he said.
Li described the government consultations as “practical and highly effective,” and spoke of “fruitful results.” Ten joint projects were agreed upon, he said, among them a three-year action plan for regular exchanges in areas such as climate and species protection and the fight against hunger and pandemics.
The two countries had exchanged views “quite openly and in-depth,” said Li, who again agreed to put cooperation forward “for mutual benefit” despite all differences. The two countries should look for common ground and “work hand in hand to help each other succeed,” he said. “If we strengthen cooperation in science, industry and business, we will contribute to the stability of the world economy.”
But Germany has become wary of cooperation with China, with German companies in the process of reducing dependencies. “Companies are intensively diversifying their sales and procurement markets strategically and building new partnerships,” said Siegfried Russwurm, president of the Federation of German Industries.
German companies have special plans for China
Nevertheless, China remains an exceedingly important market. More than 5,000 German companies with 1.1 million employees produce in the People’s Republic. In addition to the big names such as Volkswagen and BASF, these also include countless medium-sized companies. They all benefit from cheap labor and China’s huge domestic market.
The European Union is developing concrete proposals for tougher action against China. For the German economy, this sounds alarming. But the chancellor has been taking pains to reassure business leaders. At a major gathering this week, he emphasized that only business deals in the area of defense and armaments would have to be scrutinized very carefully.
Meanwhile, the German business community is already preparing for a degree of “decoupling.” Many have made plans to split companies into two separate business units: one for China and one for the rest of the world. The China division would then produce only for the Chinese market and become a purely Chinese company. Some US companies are also already planning to do this.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken underscored the importance of the economic aspects of the bilateral U.S.-China relationship during his high-stakes trip to Beijing earlier this week.
In a press conference Monday that wrapped up his visit, Blinken noted record high trade between the two countries, and said the U.S. is “prepared to cooperate with China” in “macroeconomic stability,” among other areas of mutual interest.
Earlier that day, he met with U.S. businesses in China working in health care, automotive and entertainment, the State Department said. The head of U.S. foreign policy meeting with businesses can’t be considered a given on trips of this nature.
“I know particularly when Blinken was [scheduled to be] coming before in February, we lobbied and we were told there was no time for the business community,” Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, told CNBC.
Hart said he didn’t know what may have changed since then, but noted similar attention to business when German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Beijing in April.
“That would suggest the politicians do very much understand the economic linkages and the importance for political stability between those two economies,” Hart said. “It’s significant.”
The German Chamber of Commerce in China said that during her Beijing trip, Baerbock visited German company Flender, a gearbox manufacturer.
Chairman Colm Rafferty and Vice Chair Roberta Lipson attended the meeting with Blinken on behalf of AmCham China. The U.S. Department of State referred CNBC to Blinken’s press conference Monday when asked about AmCham China’s comment about failing to get a meeting with the secretary during his planned February trip.
Symbolic visit
Blinken met Chinese President Xi Jinping Monday as part of his trip to Beijing, the first visit by a U.S. secretary of State since 2018.
Gabriel Wildau, managing director at consulting firm Teneo, said the most important economic takeaway from Blinken’s trip was that it happened, especially the meeting with Xi.
“The big fear for investors has been that bilateral relations are on an unstoppable downward spiral,” he said. “Just by signaling that relations may stop getting worse, the two sides can reduce pressure on companies to explore options for decoupling.”
Blinken also met with Director of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Foreign Affairs Office Wang Yi, and State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang.
Challenges for U.S. business in China
U.S.-China tensions escalated under the Trump administration. It had focused on using tariffs and sanctions in an attempt to address long-standing complaints about the inability for U.S. companies to access the Chinese market in the same way as local firms.
Blinken told reporters at Monday’s press conference that he heard about the problems for U.S. companies in China, and the companies’ desire to grow their local business. He described doing business in China as being in the best interests of the U.S.
Slowing growth
Regulatory challenges aside, a more pressing issue for businesses is slower economic growth in China and the U.S. in the last few months.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has aggressively hiked interest rates in a bid to stem inflation domestically. China’s central bank this month started trimming major interest rates to support growth.
Treasury Secretary Yellen is among the U.S. officials expected to visit Beijing in the near future.
Global macroeconomic stability is one of the items the two countries should work together on, U.S. President Joe Biden said at his meeting with Xi in November, according to a readout.
On Monday, Blinken listed out similar areas of potential cooperation, including climate and the economy.
He said the growth of major economies such as China is in the U.S. interest and described the economic relationship as “vitally important.”
“But at the same time, as I said, it’s not in our interest to provide technology to China that could be used against us,” he said.
The Biden administration has used sanctions and export controls to restrict the ability of U.S. businesses to work with Chinese partners on advanced technology such as high-end semiconductors.
Taiwan economics
On the issue of Taiwan, Blinken also brought up the economic angle. He noted that a crisis over the island would likely “produce an economic crisis that could affect, quite literally, the entire world.”
He pointed out that 50% of commercial container traffic goes through the Taiwan Strait every day, and that 70% of semiconductors are manufactured on the island.
Blinken said he made it “very clear” to the Chinese about rising concerns surrounding Beijing’s recent “provocative actions” — and the “dramatic consequences” for the world if a crisis around Taiwan escalated.
Beijing claims Taiwan is part of its territory, and has maintained it seeks “peaceful reunification” with the democratically self-governed island. The U.S. recognizes Beijing as the sole government of China but maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan.
Blinken said a fundamental U.S. understanding is that any differences on Taiwan “will be resolved peacefully.” He reiterated that the U.S. does not support Taiwan’s independence.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has held “candid, substantive, and constructive” talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang in Beijing, the US Department of State says.
Sunday’s talks marked the start of the highest-level trip by a US official to China in nearly five years as the rival superpowers aim to stabilise strained relations.
“The secretary emphasised the importance of diplomacy and maintaining open channels of communication across the full range of issues to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.
Qin told Blinken that China is committed to building a “stable, predictable, and constructive” relationship with the United States, state media reported.
He also made clear China’s concerns regarding its core interests – including the Taiwan issue, describing it as the “most prominent risk” in Sino-US relations, it said.
Before the talks, US officials saw little chance of any breakthrough on the long list of disputes between the world’s two largest economies, which range from trade and US efforts to hold back China’s semiconductor industry, to the status of self-governed Taiwan and Beijing’s human rights record.
“The secretary raised a number of issues of concern, as well as opportunities to explore cooperation on shared transnational issues … where our interests align,” Miller said.
Blinken invited Qin to visit Washington, DC “to continue the discussions, and they agreed to schedule a reciprocal visit at a mutually suitable time”, he noted.
The top American diplomat’s two-day trip comes amid frosty bilateral ties and follows the discovery of a suspected spy balloon above the US in February that prompted him to delay the trip planned the same month.
With China and the US at odds on an array of issues from trade to technology and regional security, both countries have voiced guarded hopes of improving communication.
Brendon O’Connor from the University of Sydney said the US has a lot to do to repair relations with China, including “a lot more lines of communication being opened up”.
“Diplomacy is desperately needed at the moment and the visit itself is a good thing by Antony Blinken. But I don’t think it’s going to thaw relations dramatically,” O’Connor told Al Jazeera.
Blinken, the highest-level American official to visit China since President Joe Biden took office, will have more senior level contacts with the Chinese on Monday, including potentially with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
‘Areas we can get along’
Biden played down the balloon episode as Blinken headed to China, saying: “I don’t think the leadership knew where it was and knew what was in it and knew what was going on. I think it was more embarrassing than it was intentional.”
Biden said he hoped to again meet Xi after a lengthy meeting in November on the sidelines of a Group of 20 (G20) summit in Bali, where the two agreed on Blinken’s visit.
“I’m hoping that, over the next several months, I’ll be meeting with [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] again and talking about legitimate differences we have but also how there’s areas we can get along,” Biden said.
The two leaders are likely to attend the next G20 summit, in September in New Delhi, and Xi has been invited to travel to San Francisco in November when the US hosts leaders from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) grouping.
‘Spiralling out of control’
A recent phone call between Blinken and Qin underlined the heightened tensions between the two sides.
“Beijing is looking for assurances from the US that it won’t meddle into its domestic affairs, that it won’t cross the red lines of its core interests, particularly Taiwan,” said Al Jazeera’s Katrina Yu, reporting from the Chinese capital.
But expectations of any major breakthroughs from the visit are low, Yu added.
“But that doesn’t mean that it is not significant, especially as China’s neighbours are very worried that the relationship has gone so bad that there is a danger of tensions spiralling out of control into some sort of open conflict,” Yu said.
Ties between Beijing and Washington have deteriorated across the board, raising the spectre that the two might one day clash militarily over the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own.
They are also at odds over issues ranging from trade, US efforts to hold back China’s semiconductor industry and Beijing’s human rights track record.
Particularly alarming for China’s neighbours has been its reluctance to engage in regular military-to-military talks with Washington, despite repeated attempts for dialogue by the US.
Speaking at a press conference on Friday before he left for Beijing, Blinken said his trip had three main objectives: Setting up mechanisms for crisis management, advancing the US’s and its allies’ interests as well as speaking directly about related concerns, and exploring areas of potential cooperation.
“If we want to make sure, as we do, that the competition that we have with China doesn’t veer into conflict, the place you start is with communicating,” Blinken said.
The US has also been keeping its allies close, with Blinken speaking by telephone with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea during his 20-hour journey across the Pacific.
Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, also travelled to Tokyo for separate three-way meetings involving Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
In recent months, the US has reached deals on troop deployments in southern Japan and the northern Philippines, both strategically close to Taiwan.
Blinken is the first top US diplomat to visit Beijing since a stop in 2018 by his predecessor Mike Pompeo, who later championed no-holds-barred confrontation with China in the final years of Donald Trump’s US presidency.
Jennifer Hansler, Kylie Atwood and Nectar Gan, CNN
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken kicked off talks with senior Chinese officials in Beijing on Sunday at the start of a high-stakes visit meant to steer relations back on course after months of inflamed tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Blinken is the first secretary of state to travel to China in five years and the most senior US official to make such a mission since President Joe Biden took office in early 2021.
Observers will be closely watching for whether a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping is on the cards. Previous trips by America’s top diplomat have often involved a face to face with China’s top leader, but relations are at their lowest in decades.
Officials from both governments have signaled low expectations for the visit, with a senior State Department official telling reporters earlier this week that he does not expect “a long list of deliverables.”
Instead, US officials are framing the trip as an effort to resume normal channels of communication with China in order to avoid conflict between two of the globe’s great powers.
“What we’re working to do on this trip is to really carry forward what President Biden and President Xi agreed to in Bali at the end of last year, which was to establish sustained, regular lines of communication at senior levels across our governments precisely so that we can make sure that we are communicating as clearly as possible to avoid, as best possible, misunderstandings and miscommunications,” Blinken said Friday prior to his departure.
Meeting with foreign minister
Blinken’s primary goal in China is to reestablish channels of communication, especially direct military-to-military communication between Washington and Beijing, according to a senior State Department official.
His retinue touched down in Beijing on Sunday with a full schedule for the first day which began with meeting China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, who took up the post six months ago after ending a stint as Beijing’s ambassador to Washington.
Blinken and Qin shook hands in front of reporters at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse on Sunday afternoon, their first in-person meeting in their current positions.
The two officials exchanged terse pleasantries in English about the US delegation’s flight over before heading into a brightly lit meeting room, with large windows looking out to a lotus pond and a large Chinese traditional ink painting on the wall.
During the meeting, which lasted for more than five hours, Blinken invited Qin to visit Washington and the invitation was accepted, State Department spokesperson Matt Miller said in a readout of the meeting.
“The Secretary invited Foreign Minister Qin to Washington to continue discussions, and they agreed to schedule a reciprocal visit at a mutually suitable time,” Miller said, adding that Blinken had emphasized the “importance of diplomacy and maintaining channels of communication across the full range of issues to reduce the risk of misperception or miscalculation.”
Blinken also expressed US concerns on a number of fronts and opportunities to work together with China where interests align, Miller said.
US officials who took part in the meeting included Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink and US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns.
On the Chinese side, Qin was accompanied by other foreign ministry officials, including Assistant Foreign Minister Hua Chunying.
On the whole, Sunday’s meeting was “direct” and resulted in progress “on a number of fronts” with both sides showing a “desire to reduce tensions,” a senior State Department official told reporters. But “profound differences” between the US and China were also clear during the meeting, the official added.
“No one was under any preconception that we were going solve all of the difficult issues in one meeting or two meetings,” the official added, noting that it was important to start the conversation.
One thing that the two sides agreed on was the need to expand flights between the two countries, US officials said. But they did not share any agreements on that topic, or any other substantive topic, with reporters.
Following the afternoon meeting, Blinken moved on to a working dinner with Qin, the US State Department told the traveling press.
Strained relationship
On Monday, Blinken is scheduled for a meeting with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, as well as roundtable talks with American exchange students and business leaders.
The Biden administration’s relationship with Beijing is one of its most complicated and consequential, and one that has seen months of strain, including two military-related incidents in recent weeks.
Biden and Xi met in person for the first time as presidents on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Indonesia last November.
Blinken’s trip, which had been announced by Biden and Xi after their meeting, was originally scheduled to happen in February and had been seen as a key follow-on engagement. However, it was postponed after the discovery of a suspected Chinese spy balloon transiting the US, which Blinken said at the time “created the conditions that undermine the purpose of the trip.”
However, Kritenbrink said Wednesday that both the US and China came “to the shared conclusion that now is the right time to engage at this level,” but “we’re not going to Beijing with the intent of having some sort of breakthrough or transformation in the way that we deal with one another.”
“I think the fact that China agreed to this meeting reflects that Beijing is feeling pretty confident about its own position,” Patricia Kim, a Brookings Institution fellow, said at a media briefing Friday.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Bejing, China, on June 18.Leah Millis/Reuters
“Both sides make comments about the fact that this trip, this visit isn’t going to fundamentally change the US-China relationship or resolve the many disputes between the two countries, and I think there’s this desire not to set expectations too high or to appear too eager to engage with the other side. I think neither side wants to look as if they’re accepting or acquiescing to the other’s actions,” she said.
Speaking to reporters Saturday, Biden acknowledged “legitimate differences” with China but maintained he was willing to discuss the “areas we can get along.”
A promise to raise ‘very real concerns’
Prior to his visit, Blinken said that in his meetings with senior Chinese officials, he intended to raise “our very real concerns on a range of issues.” Those issues include the fentanyl crisis, Taiwan and cross-Strait issues, the war in Ukraine, and China’s detention of American citizens, including Kai Li, Mark Swidan and David Lin.
On the fentanyl crisis, the senior State Department official said that Blinken’s specific focus is on stemming the flow of precursor chemicals from China to labs in South America, where the deadly opioid is produced.
Blinken also said Friday he intended “to explore the potential for cooperation on transnational challenges – global economic stability, illicit synthetic drugs, climate, global health – where our countries’ interests intersect and the rest of the world expects us to cooperate.”
His visit comes on the heels of a flurry of meetings between American and Chinese officials in recent weeks.
In May, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in Vienna, followed by talks between the two countries’ commerce officials in Washington. China’s new ambassador has also arrived in the US, vowing to enhance relations at a time of “serious difficulties and challenges.”
“China and the US have already had relatively frequent high-level diplomatic contacts, all of which indicate that the two sides are gradually getting back on the right track,” said Shen Dingli, an expert on China’s foreign policy in Shanghai.
However, contacts between the countries’ top military officials are still frozen, and it remains to be seen whether Blinken’s visit can lead to a breakthrough on that front. China rejected an offer for a formal meeting between Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who is under US sanction, in Singapore last month, although the two did speak briefly.
The US is also due to host the leaders’ summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in November, which Xi, the Chinese leader, will attend no matter the state of the US-China relationship, Shen said.
But whether Xi’s trip will include a formal visit to the US – and at what level – depends on “what can be done by the two sides beforehand,” Shen said.
Biden told reporters Saturday he believed Blinken’s trip to China could ease tensions and said he hoped to meet with Xi again over the “next several months.”
Shen said there were two things China cared about the most: “managing differences on the Taiwan issue and preventing supply chains from decoupling, especially on advanced chips.”
“The hope is that Blinken’s visit can improve relations both in form and in substance. But hope might not turn into reality, and relations might become worse after the visit,” he added. “We prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”
Blinken would not predict whether his visit would pave the way for continued high-level engagements between the US and China.
“As to what comes next, let’s see how the visit goes,” the top US diplomat said Friday, referencing comments from his Singaporean counterpart. “This is an important but, in a sense, insufficient step because there’s a lot of work to be done.”
