India As The World’s Third Largest Economy? Here’s How Long It Will Take

Pallavi Nahata

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that India will be one of the top three economies in the world in his third term. That’s a likely outcome.

The nation is the fifth largest economy after the U.S., China, Japan, and Germany. It is expected to overtake both Japan and Germany to clinch the third spot in 2027 (FY28), according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund.

India is already the third largest economy by purchasing power parity.

India will jump seven places upwards since 2014 when the country was ranked the tenth largest economy.

It’s likely to get the tag of the third largest economy in 2027 (FY28) based on actual GDP data as on March 2023, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at the State Bank of India, said in a note on Thursday.

For this, India needs to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% till 2027 in dollar terms. That translates into 11.0-11.5% nominal GDP growth per annum in rupee terms, which is eminently achievable with a 6.5-7% growth rate, according to estimates by Ghosh.

To be sure, India’s GDP growth has averaged about 5.5% over the past decade. But it’s expected to accelerate.

Ghosh said India is likely to add $0.75 trillion every two years, implying that it is all set to touch $20 trillion by 2047, at least on current numbers.

India’s Journey To The World’s Third Largest Economy

India’s role on the global stage has shifted dramatically, IMF’s Deputy Managing Director Antoinette M Sayeh said earlier this year. In 1991, the country was one of the world’s largest recipients of aid; today, it’s a net donor. And it’s expected to contribute about 15% to global growth this year, she said.

Since 1991, when India embarked on its economic liberalisation, its real per capita income has more than tripled, helping lift an estimated 400 million people out of poverty in the last 15 years—the fastest poverty reduction rates seen in the world, said Sayeh.

Achilles Heel

India overtook China to become the world’s most populous country earlier this year. But per capita incomes still remain low at $2,388.6 per year, according to World Bank data for 2022. That compares with $2,688.3 for Bangladesh and $12,720.2 for China.

Inequality in consumption continues with a Gini index of around 35 over the past two decades, according to a note by the World Bank. Child malnutrition has remained high, while concerns persist over quality of jobs being created, the real growth in wages as well as around the low participation of women in the labour force.

Beyond 2028

A recent article by Goldman Sachs projects India to become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075. But how reliable are such forecasts?

Long-term trend-based GDP forecasting is an assessment of the average growth in countries, economic climate and the world economy. It uses a combination of model-based analyses and expert judgement.

Another way to forecast is when economists make assumptions regarding changes in the structure of the economy, said NR Bhanumurthy, vice chancellor of Dr B.R. Ambedkar School of Economics University. For instance, change in the share of investments or services. In either case, the probability of achieving that forecast is lower with the increase in duration, he said.

According to Radhika Pandey, associate professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, very long-term predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt.

She cited the example of recent years when the world economy has grappled with too much uncertainty—the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, unprecedented inflation in the developed economies, monetary tightening and the consequent growth slowdown. Such factors, Pandey said, could continue.

Still, long-term forecasting does help provide a general sense of direction, she said, and while such numbers might not be trustworthy, they provide insights into how to boost growth or productivity.

Perhaps, that’s the reason why the government targets India to be an advanced economy by 2047.

While the IMF classifies high income and advanced economies as those with per capita nominal GDP exceeding $21,664, World Bank’s threshold is $30,351.

The Reserve Bank of India said in a paper that gross domestic product needs to grow by 7.6% from 2023–24 to 2047–48 to meet IMF’s criterion. But to become a high income economy by World Bank’s standard, India’s GDP needs to grow 9% during the period.

Back to the original question: Will India become the world’s third largest economy in five years, as the Prime Minister predicted? Most likely. Will it be an advanced economy by 2047? That’s a tall order.

(Source: bqprime India)


Afghans awaiting US resettlement say they’re being deported from Pakistan back to the Taliban

Nick Paton Walsh, Masoud Popalzai.

CNN — 

Afghans who were promised a home in the United States after their country fell to the Taliban say they have waited so long for the US to process their applications that they are now being sent back to the enemy they fled.

A number of Afghans who worked with the US and were told they were eligible for resettlement there have been forcibly deported back to Afghanistan from Pakistan, where they fled to await processing following the Taliban takeover in 2021, CNN can reveal.

One man waiting for a US visa described being dropped at the Afghan border by Pakistani police this summer. “They did not hand us over to the (Taliban) Afghan border forces,” he said. “They just released us on the border and told us to go back to Afghanistan. It was me, my four kids and my wife deported together.” He is now living in hiding in the Afghan capital, Kabul.

Another deported Afghan, also speaking from hiding in Kabul, said: “So this is very, very dangerous, and it is very tough… How many people have been killed, had been tortured, have been disappeared?” The man, a former employee of a US contractor, said the Taliban “will punish me, they will put me in jail. Maybe they will kill me? I’m sure they will.” He added: “Still, we believe that the USA will help us. We believe we didn’t lose our hope still.”

Both individuals spoke to CNN anonymously for their safety, and provided documentation showing a US visa case number being processed, and evidence of their presence in Pakistan.

Many Afghans fled the Taliban after the August 15, 2021 fall of Kabul to the hard-line group. More than 124,000 Afghans were airlifted out of the country in a huge US-led operation.

Yet, thousands also fled across the border to Pakistan, often with incomplete paperwork, following US guidance that they should wait in a third country for their visa applications to the US to be processed.

Nearly 90,000 Afghans have since been resettled in the US, according to State Department figures, but many others have been caught in the backlog of so-called Afghan Priority 2 (P-2) or Special Immigrant Visas (SIV) applications waiting to be processed.

Human rights groups say the most acute situation is faced by those in Pakistan, from where hundreds of Afghans have been deported in a crackdown against migrants following recent political instability.

At least two Afghans awaiting P-2 visas have been swept up in this crackdown, CNN has learned, and complain of Pakistani police persecution. Several others still residing in Pakistan told CNN about what they said was harassment by Pakistani police and the threat of deportation if they did not pay fines or bribes.

Pakistan’s Foreign and Interior Ministries have not responded to CNN’s request for comment on the claims.

At least 530 Afghans have been deported from Pakistan so far this year, according to Haseeb Aafaq, a spokesman for volunteer group the Afghanistan Immigrants Refugees Council. Aafaq said the figure came from his studies of local records but added it might be a low estimate as many Afghans were deported without documentation.

Aafaq added that the Pakistani authorities made no exceptions for pending US visa cases. “There is no differentiation. The authorities here do not even think about where you are from. If you are Afghan, you must be deported if your visa is not valid, whether you are SIV or P-2 or sponsorship cases.” He said many of those deported are P-2 cases, but he could not provide a precise number as many Afghans keep their P-2 status confidential out of fear for their safety.

Two young Afghan men have taken their own lives in Islamabad since June, both awaiting US P-2 visas, according to activists. Aafaq said one of them, aged 25, who died last week, had suffered “mental pressure and economic pressure and an unclear future.”

Aafaq said the US failure to open a Resettlement Support Center (RSC) in Pakistan meant the processing of cases there had partially stalled. “The RSC has not been activated yet, while in other countries, like Turkey or Tajikistan, people have gone to the US,” he said.

Afghans waiting in Pakistan have reported harassment by Pakistani police, including arrest and demands for money. One, who worked with the US military and asked not to be named for his safety, told CNN: “They were asking for a visa. There were a lot of policemen, they came into the house without clear information. And they took me out of (my) home and they just put (me) in the van. My kids, they were very much harassed. They were crying, they were asking for help.”

He also described how he once saved his American colleagues during a protest, and had commendation letters denoting his service. “I’m disappointed because (of) the way that I served the Americans in Afghanistan. I was expecting them to welcome me there sooner. It seems like I have no future at all.”

The US State Department told CNN in a statement that the Biden administration “continues to demonstrate its commitment to the brave Afghans” who worked with the US. It added that its “processing capacity in Pakistan remains limited, but (staff) are actively working to expand it.” The statement urged “Afghanistan’s neighbors” to “keep their borders open” and “uphold their obligations” when it comes to asylum seekers. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry declined to comment.

Another Afghan, whom CNN is not naming for his safety, served the US in Afghanistan and is now in Pakistan with his wife and children. He described their wait for US help as a “bad dream.” His wife sobbed: “Going back to Afghanistan is a big risk and here we are dying, every moment. Staying in Pakistan is a gradual death.”

Asia’s ‘strategic autonomy’: How the new era could shape our collective identities

Dr Ramzy Baroud

In a recent speech, China’s highest-ranking diplomat Wang Yi spoke of a “united Asia” and its need to develop a “strategic autonomy”.

In principle, Wang was not wrong; after all, a stable and prosperous Asia would benefit the region’s peoples and deny Western meddlers the chance to exploit historical fault lines and sow the seeds of political division.

Wang’s language, although from the outside may seem simple and straightforward, is quite loaded with meaning. “No matter how blonde you dye your hair, how sharp you shape your nose, you can never become a European or American, you can never become a Westerner,” Wang said, as cited by Chinese state media.

In fact, common culture, beliefs and origins have historically served as starting points for regional cohesion, unity and collective identity.

Wang and China’s challenge is being able to promote regionalism at the expense of national identities.

Writing for Russia Today, political analyst Timur Fomenko articulates the challenge: “In the eyes of US allies… an Asia without America is an Asia dominated by China.”

This is a real concern that cannot be glossed over simply because the world is rapidly shifting from one historical stage of power distribution to another. In fact, it is precisely because of this shift that China’s old and new Asian rivals would find Pan-Asianism somewhat worrying.

That said, Asia has no other option but to locate its collective common ground around equitable conditions since the alternative will always be a Western neo-colonial drive for domination.

This is a question that cannot be addressed only by politicians. It is a social and intellectual conversation of the first order and must engage all sections of societies in China, Japan, the two Koreas and beyond.

This supra-national conversation must be had if the transition to a new world is to run smoothly.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is a testament to how chaotic historical transitions can fuel future conflicts. It is almost certain that, even when the current war ends, fresh disputes in Eastern Europe will emerge.

But China and Asia have much better chances of resolving historical dichotomies by finding commonalities. This claim is supported by the fact that, while Europe is dwindling in terms of economic might and political influence, Asia is growing.

Indeed, historically, prosperity has played a major role in the formation of regional and, more recently, national identities.

For example, while political expediency convinced many of the supposedly inherent conflicts between Arabs, Muslims and the Middle East, on the one hand, and the “West” on the other, such notion is misleading and historically inaccurate.

It might be shocking for some to learn that several great Roman emperors were Arabs or, at least, from the modern-day Middle East.

But this historical fact should not be shocking at all.

From the Libyan Septimius Severus (193-211 AD) to Philip the Arab (244-249 AD), to others, the existence of these emperors was not exactly inconsistent with the historical trajectory of that period.

They were direct expressions of the oscillation of the centres of wealth and military power during certain periods of the Roman Empire.

It may seem a bit of a surprise to us now because, since the collapse of the Roman Empire at the end of the fifth century, the geopolitics of the world has shifted, necessitating a modification in collective national and regional identities.

Most of the maps delineating the rise and fall of the Roman Empire were, up to a certain point, almost entirely Mediterranean-based, uniting today’s Middle East and North Africa with much of southern Europe.

Ultimately, the centre of the Roman powers, especially towards the end of the fourth century, moved elsewhere to include swathes of today’s Western Europe. And, in doing so, the Roman Empire began acquiring its stereotypical look and feel, that of being a Eurocentric experience.

But, for hundreds of years, most civilisations in the Mediterranean region and Asia Minor, at one point or another, were unified as a single political, social and economic whole. They borrowed each other’s systems of beliefs, social mores, cultural habits, superstitions and a sense of belonging.

To this day, one still detects this connected past in historically rooted communities in Spain, Italy, Greece, southern France and the whole of the Middle East and North Africa.

This has changed due to the constant shifts in power centres over the years.

Strange how our sense of collective identities conveniently shifts around politics over time. Geopolitically, southern Europe now feels like an entirely different space than the Middle East.

Even the term “Middle East” was itself a convenient and recent occurrence. It belongs to the British who, at the zenith of their power sometime in the 19th century, sliced up the world in ways that would ensure a once isolated, faraway northern island became the centre of the world.

In the past, however, there was no such thing as the Middle East, Near East and Far East. Considering Britain’s relatively limited influence today, these terms should be reassessed.

In modern times, as in the past, common identities are ordered around common interests and new power paradigms.

The fact that Wang is stressing the urgency of a common Asian identity is itself a sign of a changing world.

And this changing world is offering new opportunities, not only for new alliances but new collective identities as well.

(Source: MEMO)

UNSC holds a session on the situation in the Middle East, including Palestine

(WAFA) – The UN Security Council held a special session today to discuss the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question.

Khaled Khiari, Assistant Secretary-General for Middle East, Asia and the Pacific in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations, said the deterioration of the security situation in the West Bank has continued, punctuated by a two-day Israeli operation in Jenin — the most intensive of its kind in nearly 20 years. 

“This deterioration is taking place alongside ongoing unilateral steps that undermine a two-State solution, the absence of a peace process and the continuing economic challenges facing Palestinians and the Palestinian Authority,” he stressed. 

From 27 June through 24 July in the occupied West Bank, Khiari added, 25 Palestinians, including 5 children, were killed, and 249 Palestinians, including 5 women and 22 children, were injured by Israeli occupation forces

“The period saw a significant escalation in the ongoing wave of violence in the West Bank,” he continued. “From 3 to 4 July in the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank, Israeli security forces carried out an operation marked by multiple drone strikes and over 1,000 ground troops.  Twelve Palestinians, including four children, were killed and over 140 injured — the most in a single operation in the West Bank since the United Nations began tracking casualties in 2005.”

“I reiterate that acts of terror and the targeting of civilians are unacceptable and must be condemned and rejected by all,” Khiari stressed. “Israel has an obligation to protect Palestinians and their property in occupied Palestinian territory and ensure independent investigations into all acts of violence.  Security forces must exercise maximum restraints and use lethal force only when strictly unavoidable to protect life.”

He said that the humanitarian situation in the occupied West Bank remains concerning and the large Israeli attack in Jenin refugee camp has had a devastating humanitarian toll on the camp and its residents. 

Expressing deep alarm over the funding gap facing the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), he stressed that $200 million is urgently needed to maintain services from September onwards, and $75 million to sustain the food pipeline in Gaza.

Riyad Mansour, the Permanent Observer of the State of Palestine, said the “Israeli Government is one of the settlers, by the settlers and for the settlers.  There are more than 700,000 Israeli settlers in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem.”

“Let us start by calling things by their name,” he urged, stating that “the Israeli occupation is a settler-colonial occupation” and that the only way the international community can end it is to address its settler-colonial nature.

Mansour called for UN resolutions to be translated into an action plan, with measures to be taken by every peace-loving State to dissuade Israel from entrenching its occupation.  Israel has effectively annexed large parts of Palestinian territory and restricted Palestinians into disconnected enclaves. “Confinement for Palestinians, expansion for Israeli settlements,” he observed, adding: “It wants maximum Palestinian land with minimum Palestinians.  If it can build Israeli settlements and destroy Palestinian homes without consequences, it will continue doing so.”

Against that backdrop, Mansour called on the international community to hold accountable the settlers who walk into Palestinian villages and destroy homes, crops and wreak havoc in the streets. 

He said, “We need an action plan, with the necessary resources and the will to implement it.  The International Criminal Court investigations must start yielding results by providing justice for victims and deterring perpetrators. The International Court of Justice advisory opinion will give the United Nations and all States guidance on their legal obligations.” 

Mansour also urged the international community to protect the lives of Palestinian children, who are confronted with killings, forced displacement, arbitrary arrests and destroyed homes and schools.  “Protect our children as they are the primary target of the warmongers.  They always come for the next generation.  The peacemakers should do the same.”

Robert Wood, Rep. of the United States to the UN, pointed out that the escalating trend of violence in 2023 underscores the fragility of the situation in the West Bank. He urged all parties to take proactive measures to counter all forms of violence and to ensure that justice and accountability are pursued with equal rigour in all cases of extremist violence. 

Adrian Hauri, Deputy Permanent Representative of Switzerland to the United Nations, called for the de-escalation of violence and the protection of civilians, noting that more than 40 children have died since January.  He also called on Israel and Palestine to implement the commitments they made in Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh, adding that Switzerland considers East Jerusalem to be occupied territory and that its final status must be negotiated between the parties.  He also expressed concern that Israel is accelerating settlement activity in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, recalling that settlements are illegal under international law and constitute a major obstacle to a two-State solution. 

Lilly Stella Ngyema Ndong (Gabon), said she is concerned with the spiral of violence and the deteriorating security situation on the ground.  She condemned the killing of civilians, including women and children, and the detention of children.  She is also concerned with the continued expansion of settlements, demolitions and expulsions, particularly in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem. “This is a clear violation of international law that must cease, especially since it impedes the building of a comprehensive, just and lasting peace,” she said, calling for the respect for the status quo of the holy places in Jerusalem.  She again called for funding of UNRWA and the World Food Programme (WFP), which help stabilize the region and provide humanitarian aid. She urged all parties to abide by Council resolutions.

Vanessa Frazier, the Permanent Representative of Malta to the UN, underscored that the deterioration of the security situation on the ground is leading to tragic numbers of casualties, including children.  “It is disheartening to see a generation of Palestinian children so devoid of hope and aspirations, a generation that only knows life under the blockade,” she said, emphasizing that the psychosocial repercussions of these circumstances must not be underestimated.  She recognized UNRWA’s crucial efforts to protect Palestinian refugees, calling on the international community to bolster financial support towards guaranteeing its service provision. 

Zhang Jun, Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, said that the Council should prevent the situation from spiralling out of control.  Recalling that Israel recently launched its biggest military operation in nearly 20 years, he said it resulted in the death of 12 and the injury of over 100 Palestinians in Jenin, along with the flight of more than 3,000 refugees.

Pointing out that settlement-expansion is altering the status quo, he called on Israel to cease these activities and return to the two-State solution.  He also called for the removal of the Gaza Strip blockade and encouraged more humanitarian assistance.  “The longer action is delayed, the more complex and the graver the situation is, and the greater the difficulty for achieving peace is,” he underscored.

Pakistan Free to Have Ties With China, Senior US Official Says

Sarah Zaman

A senior White House national security official has said the United States does not want to coerce Pakistan into choosing between Washington and Beijing.

Eileen Laubacher, senior director for South Asia on the U.S. National Security Council, told VOA that Washington wants its partners to be able to choose their relationships freely. The council advises the U.S. president on national security and foreign policy.

“It’s important to reiterate that the United States wants our partners to be able to make their own choices, free of external coercion,” Laubacher said in written comments following her maiden visit to Pakistan this month.

During the July 19-21 visit, Laubacher met with senior Pakistani government and military officials.

“Every country needs productive, supportive, equitable relationships with a variety of partners, and Pakistan is no different,” she said.

The growing rivalry between Washington and Beijing has created a challenge for Islamabad as the United States deepens defense and security ties with Pakistan’s archival India in a bid to counter China’s growing influence.

“Our bilateral relationships with both Pakistan and India do not come at the expense of the other,” the White House official said, repeating a stance frequently expressed by the State Department.

As Islamabad watches India-U.S. ties grow, it hopes to repair its own tenuous relations with Washington, damaged by the 20-year U.S.-led war in Afghanistan that saw the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul.

While Pakistan denies the accusation that it covertly supported the then-insurgent group despite being a U.S. ally in the war, both Washington and Islamabad share concerns over Afghanistan again becoming a terrorist haven under the Taliban.

Laubacher’s visit came amid a flurry of recent high-profile contacts between the two sides, including a telephone call between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Pakistani counterpart Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, and a meeting between the U.S. CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael E. Kurilla and Pakistani army chief Gen. Asim Munir in Islamabad.

Responding to whether the U.S. is helping Pakistan target anti-Pakistan terrorists inside Afghanistan, Laubacher said, “We have a close working relationship with Pakistan on security matters.”

Pakistan faces almost daily attacks from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP, an ideological offshoot of the Afghan Taliban that Islamabad alleges is operating from Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban deny harboring the TTP.

The U.S. national security official said Washington was providing millions of dollars in life-saving equipment for Pakistani law-enforcement officers upon Pakistan’s request.

This month the U.S. ambassador in Pakistan inaugurated a $17.2 million police training center in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province that borders Afghanistan and is most affected by terror attacks.

The White House, however, has yet to resume military aid to Pakistan, which then-President Trump froze in 2018 after accusing Pakistan of being untrustworthy in a tweet.

Laubacher did not say if the Biden White House is looking to resume that assistance soon.

“We continue to consider defense transfers and security assistance to Pakistan—as we do with all recipients—on a case-by-case basis, where it serves the interests of both countries.”

Last September, the White House approved a $450 million deal to provide repair and maintenance services for Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jet fleet.

Pakistan has been plagued with political instability since Imran Khan was ousted as prime minister in April of last year. Although Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has pledged to pave the way for general elections, uncertainty looms about when and if polls will happen this year.

Responding to a question on how the White House can ensure Pakistan holds timely elections, Laubacher said the U.S. supports free, fair, and credible elections around the world.

“We encourage the government of Pakistan to adhere to Pakistan’s constitution and laws, including with regard to holding general elections,” she said.

(Source: VOA News)

الثالوث المرعب.. لماذا يشتعل السباق النووي بين الصين والهند وباكستان؟

مقدمة الترجمة:

يتناول أندرو كرِبينِفيتش، زميل أول في معهد هدسون والزميل الأول المساعد في مركز الأمن الأميركي الجديد، السباق النووي الثلاثي في آسيا بين الصين والهند وباكستان، في ضوء ما ورد في كتاب “اللا تماثل الصادم” (Striking Asymmetries) للباحث والمسؤول الأميركي ذي الأصول الهندية “أشلي تيلليس”، مرجحا أن المنظومة النووية الثلاثية، التي ظلَّت مستقرة طيلة عقود، باتت قاب قوسين أو أدنى من دخول مرحلة الخطر.

نص الترجمة:

في صيف عام 2021، عرف العالم أن الصين تقوم بتوسيع هائل لترسانتها النووية، حيث أظهرت صور الأقمار الصناعية شروع بكين في بناء نحو 300 صومعة لتخزين الصواريخ الباليستية. وتعتقد وزارة الدفاع الأميركية (البنتاغون) أن مخزون الصين من السلاح النووي، الذي لم يتجاوز بضع مئات من الرؤوس النووية لسنوات طويلة، قد يقفز إلى 1500 بحلول عام 2035، ما يؤكد التكهُّنات التي قالت إن بكين ستنضم قريبا إلى روسيا والولايات المتحدة لتصبح في صدارة القوى النووية الكُبرى معهما.

لقد بدأ خبراء الأمن مؤخرا بالنظر في مآلات الانطلاقة النووية الصينية، ولعلهم يجدون الفائدة في كتاب “اللا تماثل الصادم” (Striking Asymmetries) للباحث والمسؤول الأميركي ذي الأصول الهندية “أشلي تيلليس”، الذي يبحث في تَبِعات تحرُّكات الصين من منظور الصراع بين القوى النووية الثلاث في آسيا: الصين والهند وباكستان. ففي هذا العمل المُهم واجب القراءة على كبار المسؤولين السياسيين والعسكريين، يقول تيلليس إن تلك المنظومة النووية الثلاثية، التي ظلَّت مستقرة طيلة عقود، باتت قاب قوسين أو أدنى من دخول مرحلة الخطر. وقد اعتمد تيلليس على خبرته الطويلة في الشؤون الأمنية لجنوب آسيا، وصِلاته الفريدة بكبار صناع السياسات والقادة العسكريين في الصين والهند وباكستان، بالإضافة إلى قدرته الفائقة على تبسيط المفاهيم الفنية المُعقَّدة بشكل يتيح للقارئ العادي فَهم موضوع الكتاب، ومن ثمَّ خرج إلينا الكتاب الأشمل والأسهل والأفضل معلوماتيا حتى اليوم في رصد المنافسة النووية الآسيوية.

عقيدة الردع الأدنى

BEIJING, CHINA - OCTOBER 01: The Chinese military's new DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles, that can reportedly reach the United States, are seen at a parade to celebrate the 70th Anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, at Tiananmen Square on October 1, 2019 in Beijing, China. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
تحاشت الصين والهند وباكستان أن تستثمر بكثافة في أنظمة الإنذار المُبكِّر، مع احتفاظهم بالسيطرة المركزية على الترسانات النووية. (غيتي)

لطالما حظيت الصين وباكستان بعلاقة مُمتدة ووثيقة، بُنيت في جزء منها على النظرة المشتركة إلى الهند بوصفها خِصما للبلدين معا، ولذا وجدت الهند نفسها محاصرة بين هاتين القوتين المُعاديتيْن لها. ورغم تاريخ طويل من الحروب وفصول الصراعات العنيفة المحدودة بين الهند وجارتَيْها، تفادى الجميع الوقوع في فخ الحرب الشاملة منذ أصبحت كُلٌّ من الهند وباكستان قوتيْن نوويَّتيْن قبل نحو ربع قرن. علاوة على ذلك، لم تجد البلدان الثلاثة نفسها في أتون سباق تسلُّح نووي حتى وقت قريب، حيث نظر كلٌّ منهما إلى سلاحه النووي بالأساس بوصفه أداة سياسية، وليس وسيلة فعلية للاستخدام في الحروب. وقد تبنَّى ثلاثتهم موقف “الردع الأدنى” النووي، حيث أبقى كلٌّ منهم على أقل عدد ممكن من الرؤوس النووية الضرورية لإلحاق ضرر فائق بالمُدُن الكبرى للخصم.

التزاما بتلك الإستراتيجية، تجنَّبت الدول الآسيوية الثلاث وضع جزء مُعتبر من ترسانتها النووية في حالة تأهُّب، وبدلا من ذلك، خزَّنت سلاحها النووي في كهوف، أو في منشآت تحت الأرض، أو غيرها من مواقع سرية. وقد رفضت كلٌّ من الصين والهند وباكستان العقيدة الأميركية والروسية القائلة إن “تأخير الرد عجز عن الرد”، (أي إن عدم الاحتفاظ برؤوس نووية في حالة تأهُّب يعني تأخير القدرة على تحريكها واستخدامها إن حدث هجوم نووي، ومن ثمَّ العجز عن استخدامها في الأخير نظرا لأن السرعة في الرد جزء من فكرة الردع)*. على النقيض من ذلك التصوُّر، تخلَّت البلدان الثلاثة ضمنيا، وبالأخص الهند والصين، عن إمكانية الرد السريع على هجوم نووي مُحتمل. بطبيعة الحال، سيرُد أيٌّ من هؤلاء على مَن يهاجمه في نهاية المطاف، سواء حدث ذلك في غضون أيام أو أسابيع أو حتى أشهر، لكن جميعهم رفض ضرورة الرد الفوري. ونتيجة لذلك، تحاشت الصين والهند وباكستان أن تستثمر بكثافة في أنظمة الإنذار المُبكِّر، مع احتفاظهم بالسيطرة المركزية على الترسانات النووية.

بيد أن فُرَص استمرار حقبة الردع الأدنى تلك تبدو أكثر هشاشة يوما بعد يوم، إذ إن المنافسة الثلاثية بين الأقطاب النووية في آسيا ليست جزءا من نظام مؤسسي مستقر (على غرار التنافس الروسي-الأميركي)، حيث يخبرنا تيلليس في كتابه بأن هناك اعتقادا راسخا لدى كبار المسؤولين العسكريين في الصين والهند وباكستان مؤخرا بأن الوضع النووي لكلٍّ منهم ليس كافيا. فنتيجة لتغيُّرات في تصوُّر قادة الصين وباكستان، لحقت به الهند هي الأخرى كي تواكبه، يبدو الخصوم الثلاثة الآن على مسار سيؤدي إلى توسُّع هائل في ترساناتهم النووية، حتى وإن التزمت الولايات المتحدة وروسيا بتخفيض رؤوسهما النووية.

مَن يلاحق مَن؟

Pakistani Navy soldiers march past the Nasr solid fuelled tactical ballistic missile system during Pakistan Day military parade in Islamabad, Pakistan March 23, 2019. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
قادة باكستان يتطلَّعون اليوم إلى التخلي عن سياسة الردع الأدنى مقابل تبني “الردع الشامل”، بحيث تتأهَّب قواتهم النووية لطيف متنوع من الاحتمالات في حالة نشوب حرب مع الهند. (رويترز)

في القلب من حُجة تيلليس تقبع “أوجه اللا تماثل” التي تدفع المنافسة الثلاثية في آسيا. أول هذه الأوجه أن الصين وباكستان قوتان لا يعجبهما النظام الدولي القائم وتسعيان إلى تعديله، في حين ترى الهند أنه مناسب لها. وثانيها أن الصين تملك الترسانة النووية الأثقل، تليها باكستان، ثم تتذيَّلهما الهند. وثالثها أن هناك اختلافا في بؤرة الاهتمام الإستراتيجي لكلٍّ منهم، ففي حين يتمحور هَوَس مسؤولي الأمن الباكستاني حول الهند، يبدو تركيز الهند مُنصبا على الصين في المقام الأول. أما أعيُن الصين، فقد انتقلت من الصراعات الإقليمية إلى الدولية، وبالأساس مع الولايات المتحدة.

إن التنافس بين واشنطن وبكين هو الذي يدفع الانطلاقة النووية للأخيرة، إذ إن الردع الهندي في نظر الصين بات ذا دور هامشي في إستراتيجيتها النووية، تماما كما كان النووي الصيني هامشيا في إستراتيجية أميركا النووية أثناء الحرب الباردة مع الاتحاد السوفيتي. يُضاف إلى ذلك أن دعم بكين للبرنامج النووي الباكستاني، الذي شمل منح إسلام آباد طريقة إنتاج القنابل والمواد الانشطارية، قد عقَّد أكثر وأكثر من موقع الهند في تلك المنافسة الثلاثية. إن قادة باكستان يتطلَّعون اليوم إلى التخلي عن سياسة الردع الأدنى مقابل تبني “الردع الشامل”، بحيث تتأهَّب قواتهم النووية لطيف متنوع من الاحتمالات في حالة نشوب حرب مع الهند.

هناك ثلاثة عوامل مركزية دفعت بمسؤولي باكستان لتبنّي هذا التوجه الهجومي. أولا، تُدرك باكستان أن قواتها النظامية أضعف من نظيرتها الهندية، ولذا تعتقد بأنه لا بديل أمامها سوى استخدام قواتها النووية إن دعت الحاجة كي تعدل الكفة المائلة لصالح الهند. وثانيا، بالنظر إلى أن الهند أكبر حَجما بكثير من باكستان، تعتقد إسلام آباد بأنها مُلزمة بإيقاع ضرر على الهند في أي ضربة انتقامية أكبر بكثير مما يُمكن للهند أن توقعه بها، ما يُحتِّم على باكستان أن تمتلك ترسانة نووية أكبر تستطيع بها استهداف مدن التعداد السكاني والنشاط الاقتصادي الأكبر في الهند في حالة نشوب الحرب بينهما. وثالثا، تأمل باكستان أيضا في أن تردع قواتها النووية الهند عن شن عمل عسكري موسَّع عليها.

يقول تيلليس إن تحقيق هذا “الردع الشامل” من جانب باكستان يُوجِب أن توسِّع من ترسانتها النووية توسعا هائلا، وقد ألمح مثلا إلى أن إيقاف زحف ضخم من القوات النظامية الهندية نحو الأراضي الباكستانية يتطلب عددا كبيرا مما يُعرف بالسلاح النووي التكتيكي، وهو ما تفتقده إسلام آباد حتى اليوم.

الاستقرار الهش في جنوب آسيا

An Indian soldier salutes while standing in a vehicle during the Republic Day parade in New Delhi The 90-minute parade ended with a flypast featuring 75 air force fighters, including Rafale jets, transport planes and helicopters. [Adnan Abidi/Reuters]
قدرة الهند على الصمود في وجه هجوم نووي عليها، وإبقاء قدرتها على إلحاق الضرر البالغ ردا عليه، مرتبطة ارتباطا وثيقا بتأمين مواقع تخزين السلاح النووي تحت الأرض. (رويترز)

رغم ما يقوله تيلليس من أن “استفزازات” بكين وإسلام آباد لا تعني تلقائيا عدم الاستقرار في المنطقة، فإن الدلائل التي يسوقها تنفي ذلك. لقد كتب تيلليس أن ترسانة بكين المتعاظمة لن تضع أمن الهند في خطر أكبر بالضرورة، لكنه وصف في الوقت نفسه عددا من التحرُّكات الصينية المُحتملة جدا، جنبا إلى جنب مع حجم ترسانتها الكبير، بإمكانها أن تقوِّض ثقة الهند في ردعها النووي. بادئ ذي بدء، تسعى الصين إلى امتلاك إمكانية الرد النووي أسرع من أي وقت مضى، ما يتطلَّب منها أن تحتفظ بجزء من قوتها النووية في حالة تأهُّب، وهو أمر لا يُشكِّل خطرا على الهند إذا ما كان عدد الرؤوس النووية الصينية بضع مئات. ولكن إذا ما وضعت الصين نسبة مُعتبرة من ترسانة أكبر حجما تبلغ نحو ألف رأس أو يزيد في حالة تأهُّب، فإن الموازين الإستراتيجية بين البلدين تختل اختلالا ملحوظا، إذ سيجب على الهند في تلك الحالة أن تواجه جارا يملك إمكانية شن هجوم واسع النطاق دون آلية إنذار مبكر تقريبا.

إن قدرة الهند على الصمود في وجه هجوم نووي عليها، وإبقاء قدرتها على إلحاق الضرر البالغ ردا عليه، مرتبطة ارتباطا وثيقا بتأمين مواقع تخزين السلاح النووي تحت الأرض، حيث تفتقد الصين الآن القدرة على تدميرها حتى وإن عرفت مواقعها بالضبط. بيد أن ذلك سيتغيَّر في حال تجاوزت الترسانة النووية الصينية الألف رأس، لا سيَّما إن عزَّزت بكين من دقة توجيهها. ففي حال حدوث تطوُّر كهذا، بالتزامن مع رفع مستويات التأهُّب النووي عند الصين، ستُدَق أجراس الإنذار عند صناع القرار في نيودلهي، وسيُقاد المسؤولون الهنود إلى استنتاج مفاده أن الصين باتت تملك إمكانية تدمير الترسانة النووية الهندية.

بوسع الصين أيضا أن تعزز من دفاعاتها الجوية والصاروخية، ما يجعل الأمر أخطر في نظر الهند، إذ يُمكن لهذه الدفاعات أن تقلل من التهديد المُحتمل لأي رد نووي هندي قد يجيء بواسطة الرؤوس الهندية التي تنجو من الهجوم الصيني الأول وفقا لهذا السيناريو. ولكن نيودلهي ستعلم يقينا أن استخدام ما يتبقى لديها من سلاح نووي للرد على الصين يتركها عُرضة للابتزاز النووي الباكستاني، ومن ثمَّ تجد الهند اليوم نفسها في خطر أن تُترَك دون ردع نووي حقيقي في مواجهة إسلام آباد.

إن تيلليس على حق حين يقول إن تطوير الصين لهذه الإمكانيات ليس مؤكدا بَعد. غير أنه في خضم النمو العسكري التقليدي للصين طيلة العقود الماضية، سعت البلاد بوضوح كي تملك نظير كل إمكانية عسكرية موجودة لدى الولايات المتحدة، بما في ذلك الطائرات المقاتلة، وتشكيلات الأقمار الصناعية العسكرية، وحاملات الطائرات، والأسلحة السيبرانية. يُقر تيلليس بأنه إذا نجحت الصين في إنتاج مجموعة من تلك الإمكانيات، فإنها بحاجة إلى معرفة مواقع تخزين النووي الهندي قبل أن تتمكَّن من استهدافها، وأن تكون على ثقة عالية في أن معلوماتها الاستخباراتية دقيقة وشاملة. إن عدم اليقين هذا سيُقيِّد بكين في الآخر، لكنه في الوقت نفسه لن يمحو الإحساس بالقلق في نيودلهي، التي لن تكتفي بثقتها في أن مواقع السلاح النووي الهندية لم تُكتشف بعد بواسطة الاستخبارات الصينية، أو أن القادة الصينيين سيتجنَّبون مبادرة خطيرة بهذا الحجم.

مُعضلة دِلهي

A surface-to-surface Agni V missile is displayed during the Republic Day parade in New Delhi January 26, 2013. India celebrated its 64th Republic Day on Saturday. REUTERS/B Mathur (INDIA - Tags: ANNIVERSARY MILITARY)
وبينما تزيد الهند من رؤوسها النووية، فإن باكستان قطعا ستفعل الشيء نفسه، فيكتمل التسلسل الذي حفَّزه ابتداء التوسُّع النووي الصيني. (رويترز)

كيف يمكن أن تتعامل الهند مع تحرُّكات الصين وباكستان النووية الأخيرة؟ يقول تيلليس إن الهند لديها خيارات عديدة، لكنْ كلٌّ منها ينطوي على مسار محفوف بالمخاطر. أولها أن الهند يمكنها بسهولة أن تقتفي تطوير السلاح الصيني كي تملك سلاحا مكافئا لما تصنعه الصين يوما بيوم، لكنه يعتقد أن نيودلهي تُفضل الإبقاء على إستراتيجية الردع الأدنى، مع تعزيز قدرتها على إلحاق ضرر بالغ بمُدن الصين. وينبع هذا بشكل كبير من الكُلفة الكبيرة التي ستتكبَّدها الهند كي تلاحق الصين في خضم ملاحقة الأخيرة للترسانة النووية الأميركية (مع الأخذ في الاعتبار الفارق في الإمكانيات الاقتصادية بين البلدين)*. بيد أن تيلليس يُقِر بأن الهند عليها أن توسِّع ترسانتها النووية في النهاية كي تمتلك الرؤوس النووية الضرورية لإلحاق الضرر الكافي بالصين وباكستان معا. وبينما تزيد الهند من رؤوسها النووية، فإن باكستان قطعا ستفعل الشيء نفسه، فيكتمل إذن التسلسل الذي حفَّزه ابتداء التوسُّع النووي الصيني.

يرفض تيلليس أن يقتصر خيار توسيع الترسانة النووية الهندية على زيادة عدد منشآت التخزين ليس إلا. بدلا من ذلك، يقول تيلليس إن حل الهند يكمُن في الشراسة والقابلية للحركة، وهو ما يمكن أن تحققه الهند بتشكيل قوة من الغواصات ذات الصواريخ الباليستية النووية، مع نقل المزيد من رؤوس الترسانة الهندية إلى منصات إطلاق الصواريخ المتحركة من الطرق والسكك الحديدية.

أما عن الدفاعات الجوية والصاروخية الصينية، فإن تيلليس يشير إلى أن الهند يمكن أن تضعها في الحُسبان بوضع أجهزة تمويه من أجل اختراق المجال الصيني، وهي أجهزة تمويه مُصمَّمة كي تماثل الصواريخ الفعلية وتُلتقط بواسطة أجهزة رادار العدو، ومن ثمَّ تدفع نظام الدفاع المُعادي إلى إطلاق وتبديد صاروخ مضاد نحو هدف كاذب بدلا من استهداف التهديد الأصلي. يُمكن لهذا النهج ولو جزئيا أن يُخفف من الشعور المُلِح لدى نيودلهي بضرورة توسيع ترسانتها النووية.

Rehearsal for the upcoming Republic Day parade in New Delhi, India- - NEW DELHI,INDIA -JANUARY 23: Indian Army's Brahmos missile system takes part in the full dress rehearsal for the upcoming Republic Day parade,on January 23, 2023 in New Delhi, India.
أجرت الهند بضع تجارب نووية فحسب، وهي غير كافية للتحقُّق من تصميماتها للسلاح النووي الحراري بما يمنحها الثقة في أن السلاح يؤدي دوره في المعركة وفقا لتصميمه. (الأناضول)

ولكن حتى إن سلكت الهند هذا الاتجاه، فستواجه تحديات أخرى، منها تهديد الضربة الاستباقية الصينية الذي يُجبرها على تطوير نظام إنذار مُبكِّر يتيح لها تقليل مخاطر استهداف ترسانتها النووية، وذلك بإرسالها بعيدا عن مواقعها إلى مواقع بحرية، وإخراج الصواريخ من الصوامع. سيجب على نيودلهي أيضا أن تؤسس نظاما جديدا للقيادة والتحكُّم يوجه القرارات المتعلقة بالغواصات النووية. بينما تمضي الهند في بنائها لغواصات نووية حاملة للصواريخ، لا يزال عليها أن تسلك طريقا أطول هو بناء قوة مُعتبرة تتجاوز التحديات التكنولوجية الضرورية لإنتاج سلاح ردع نووي بحري، وهو ما يشير تيلليس إلى أن الهند تعاني فيه من مشكلات بخصوص تصميمات المفاعلات النووية البحرية.

بعد ذلك هناك السلاح النووي الهندي. لقد أجرت الهند بضع تجارب نووية فحسب، وهي غير كافية للتحقُّق من تصميماتها للسلاح النووي الحراري بما يمنحها الثقة في أن السلاح يؤدي دوره في المعركة وفقا لتصميمه. إن السلاح الأكثر موثوقية لدى الهند يكافئ 12 كيلو طن من المتفجرات، في حين يكافئ نظيره الصيني أكثر من ذلك 100 مرة. لمعالجة ذلك القصور، قد تحتاج الصين إلى مواصلة تجاربها النووية، ومن ثمَّ المخاطرة بالتعرُّض للعقوبات من الولايات المتحدة وحلفائها.

يشير تيلليس إلى حل مثير لمشكلات الهند، وهو إمكانية أن تزوِّدها الولايات المتحدة بتصميم لسلاح نووي حراري يمكن الاعتماد عليه. هناك ميثاق أمني ثلاثي بين أستراليا وبريطانيا والولايات المتحدة يُعرف بـ”أوكوس” (AUKUS) من المفترض أن يساعد أستراليا في حيازة الغواصات التي تعمل بالطاقة النووية، ويمكن أن يجري توسيع هذا البرنامج ليشمل الهند. هل يمكن للأميركيين أن يشاركوا تصميمات المفاعلات النووية الخاصة بهم مع نيودلهي؟ كي يحدث ذلك، يجب على الهند، التي لطالما حافظت على مسافة بينها وبين واشنطن منذ استقلالها عن بريطانيا، أن تقترب من الدول الديمقراطية بمنطقة الهندي-الهادي بشكل حاسم ونهائي. ولكن هل تتخلَّى الهند عن الاستقلالية الإستراتيجية وعدم الانحياز الذي لطالما استمسكت به وعدَّته في القلب من سياستها الخارجية؟

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هذا المقال مترجم عن Foreign Affairs ولا يعبر بالضرورة عن موقع ميدان.

ترجمة: ماجدة معروف.


إردوغان يلتقي عبّاس: لا نقبل بتغيير الوضع التاريخيّ للأماكن المقدّسة بفلسطين

أكّد الرئيس الفلسطيني، محمود عباس، تنصُّل حكومة الاحتلال الإسرائيليّ من تنفيذ التزاماتها في اجتماعَي العقبة وشرم الشيخ، الأمنييْن، فيما قال الرئيس التركي، رجب طيب إردوغان، إنه لا يمكن لأنقرة قبول الممارسات الإسرائيلية الرامية إلى تغيير الوضع التاريخي للأماكن المقدسة.

جاء ذلك خلال مؤتمر صحافيّ جمع الرئيسين، مساء اليوم الثلاثاء، عقب لقائهما في المجمع الرئاسي في أنقرة.

وقال إردوغان: “لا يمكننا القبول بالممارسات التي تهدف إلى تغيير الوضع التاريخي للأماكن المقدسة”.

الرئيسان؛ إردوغان وعبّاس خلال المؤتمر الصحافيّ (Getty Images)

وذكر أن “وحدة الفلسطينيين وتوافقهم أحد العناصر الأساسية في هذه المرحلة”.

وأضاف أن “إقامة دولة فلسطينية مستقلة عاصمتها القدس الشرقية على حدود عام 1967، وعلى أساس معايير الأمم المتحدة، شرط ضروري من أجل السلام، والاستقرار لمنطقتنا بأسرها”.

وقال عبّاس: “نواجه اليوم، حكومة إسرائيلية يمينية متطرفة، تسعى بكل قوتها لتدمير ما تبقى من أسس العملية السياسية، عبر ممارسات عنصرية واستعمارية مدروسة ومخطط لها، فضلا عن تنصلها من تنفيذ التزاماتها جميعا وآخرها التزامات العقبة وشرم الشيخ”.

عبّاس خلال كلمته (Getty Images)

وأضاف: “نواصل العمل على تحقيق وحدة أرضنا وشعبنا، وقد دعونا الأمناء العامين للفصائل الفلسطينية لاجتماع عاجل نهاية الشهر الجاري في القاهرة، من أجل استعادة الوحدة الوطنية، ووضع برنامج وطني لمواجهة التحديات التي تواجه شعبنا وأرضنا”.

وفي 26 شباط/ فبراير الماضي، خلص الاجتماع العقبة في الأردن، إلى إعلان اتفاق بين الجانبين الفلسطيني والإسرائيلي على وقف الإجراءات أحادية الجانب لأشهر محددة، بما يشمل وقف النشاط الاستيطانيّ لحكومة الاحتلال، وعقد لقاء شرم الشيخ.

فيما انتهى اجتماع مدينة شرم الشيخ المصرية في 19 آذار/ مارس الماضي بين الجانبين، وبحضور ممثلي مصر والأردن والولايات المتحدة، إلى 10 التزامات بشأن التهدئة، والسعي لإحياء عملية السلام المجمّدة منذ 2014.

وفي 10 تموز/ يوليو الجاري، وجّه عباس دعوة للأمناء العامين للفصائل الفلسطينية، لعقد اجتماع طارئ، في أعقاب عملية عسكرية إسرائيلية استمرت نحو 48 ساعة في مدينة جنين ومخيمها، شمالي الضفة.

(المصدر: عرب 48)

Turkiye, Palestine Presidents meet in Ankara for talks

Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on Tuesday, welcomed his Palestinian counterpart, Mahmoud Abbas, with an official ceremony at the presidential complex in the capital, Ankara, Anadolu Agency reports.

The leaders will hold one-on-one talks, to be followed by a joint news conference. The Turkish leader will also host a dinner in honour of the guest.

Erdogan and Abbas will discuss all aspects of relations between Turkiye and Palestine and steps that would deepen bilateral cooperation.

The Palestine-Israel issue, as well as other regional and international developments, will also be on the agenda.

Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was also expected to visit Turkiye this week, but the trip was postponed after he had unscheduled surgery over the weekend to put in a pacemaker.

Ankara strongly supports a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, including the establishment of a Palestinian State, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

(Source: MEMO)

Chinese and Russian delegations to visit North Korea ahead Korean War anniversary

Brad Lendon, CNN

China and Russia are both sending high level delegations to North Korea this week in a rare flurry of diplomatic activity for the secluded nation as it prepares to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the Korean War.

North Korea sealed its borders during the coronavirus pandemic, deepening the isolation of a country that is already one of the most cut off places in the world – now its closest allies are set to visit for a moment of historic import.

Chinese Communist Party official Li Hongzhong, who is part of the party’s central policymaking committee and holds a leadership position in the top body of its rubber stamp Parliament, will lead a delegation to Pyongyang this week, according to a statement from Hu Zhaoming, spokesperson of the International Liaison Department of the Central Committee.

The visit is believed to be the highest-level delegation from China since the coronavirus pandemic.

Li will attend ceremonies marking the 70th anniversary of the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War and his visit comes after an invitation from North Korea, the statement said.

“The visit will be significant for what it says about Beijing’s support of North Korea as well as Pyongyang’s willingness to relax pandemic-era border restrictions,” said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

A Russian delegation led by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will also visit North Korea from July 25-27 for the 70th anniversary, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

“This visit will help strengthen Russian-North Korean military ties and will be an important stage in the development of cooperation between the two countries,” the Defense Ministry said.

North Korean state newspaper KCNA also reported the upcoming “celebratory visit” for the anniversary on July 27, which North Korea calls “Victory Day.”

Both Russia and China are Pyongyang’s longtime allies.

In the fall of 1950, China sent a quarter million troops into the Korean Peninsula, supporting its North Korean ally and pushing back the combined forces of South Korea, the United States and other countries under the United Nations Command.

More than 180,000 Chinese troops died in the Korean War, or what Beijing calls the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea.

The Soviet Union also supported North Korea during the war and over the decades Moscow has been a staunch ally for North Korea, especially as the two share a joint animosity towards the West.

But Easley noted that South Korea is garnering a much larger show of international support for its armistice anniversary commemorations, with representatives from 22 countries expected to attend.

US nuclear powered attack submarine Annapolis has made a port call at Jeju Naval base on July 24, 2023, according to South Korean Navyís spokesperson Jang Do-young.

US nuclear powered attack submarine Annapolis has made a port call at Jeju Naval base on July 24, 2023, according to South Korean Navyís spokesperson Jang Do-young.South Korean Defence Ministry

New missile tests, sub visit

The Chinese visit, and the ceremonies marking the 70th anniversary of the 1953 armistice that ended fighting on the Korean Peninsula, comes amid simmering tensions between North Korea and South Korea and its US ally.

Pyongyang has frequently tested missiles banned under United Nations Security Council resolutions, and on several occasions the US and South Korea have deployed military assets like nuclear-capable submarines and bombers.

North Korea continued its torrid pace of missile testing late Monday, when it fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from the Pyongyang area into the waters off the east coast of the peninsula, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).

The missiles were launched around 11:55 p.m. local time, flying for about five minutes or 400 kilometers (248 miles) before falling into the water, according to the JCS.

The US Navy attack submarine USS Annapolis makes a port call at Jeju, South Korea, Naval Base on July 24, 2023.

The US Navy attack submarine USS Annapolis makes a port call at Jeju, South Korea, Naval Base on July 24, 2023.South Korean Defence Ministry

Earlier Monday, US Navy attack submarine USS Annapolis made a port call at Jeju Naval Base on the island off South Korea’s southern coast, according to South Korean Navy spokesperson Jang Do-young.

The sub was stopping at the island to replenish military supplies while on an operations mission, Jang said.

The Annapolis’ visit follows the much more provocative arrival of nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine USS Kentucky at the southern South Korean port of Busan last week.

North Korea said the visit of the “boomer,” an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine which can carry up to 20 missiles and 80 nuclear warheads, to Busan crossed a “red line” and said such provocations could produce a drastic response by Pyongyang.

“I remind the US military of the fact that the ever-increasing visibility of the deployment of the strategic nuclear submarine and other strategic assets may fall under the conditions of the use of nuclear weapons specified in the DPRK law on the nuclear force policy,” a statement from North Korean Defense Minister Kang Sun Nam posted by state media said.

North Korea silent on US soldier

Relations have been further complicated by the decision of a US soldier to cross the border between North and South Korea last week in the demilitarized zone separating the two nations.

Pvt Travis King, who was facing disciplinary action and was meant to go back to the US the day before he bolted, is believed to be the first US soldier to cross into North Korea since 1982.

On Monday, the deputy commander of the United Nations Command (UNC), Gen. Andrew Harrison, said a “conversation has commenced” with North Korea over King.

Two US officials told CNN that North Korea had acknowledged receiving contact from the UNC, a multinational military force that includes the United States which fought on the side of South Korea during the 1950-53 Korean War.

But Pyongyang does not seem to be responding to Washington directly.

The US State Department has not received a response to its messages on King, State Department spokesperson Matt Miller said on Monday. He also said it was his understanding that the US military had not received a response.

On the UNC side, Miller said it was his understanding “that there have been no new communications since last week, communications that happened in the early days,” but that the North Korean government had acknowledged receipt of the message.

“I’m not aware of any new communications, other than those that happened in the very early hours, early days after he went across the border,” Miller said at a State Department briefing Monday.

King has not been publicly seen or heard from since he crossed into North Korea last Tuesday, and North Korea has also not said anything about the status or condition of the missing soldier.

His reasons for crossing the border into one of the world’s most authoritarian places – and a country which the US does not have diplomatic relations with – have so far remained a mystery.

Easley, the Ewha Womans University professor, said any quick response from Pyongyang on the status of King was unlikely, especially in light of the armistice commemorations.

“North Korea is unlikely to engage on Travis King’s case until his interrogation and quarantine are complete, and after the Kim regime celebrates its so-called Victory Day,” Easley said.

الصين تتهم اليابان بالتدخل الصارخ في شؤونها الداخلية

اتهمت الصين اليابان، اليوم الثلاثاء، بالتدخل في شؤونها الداخلية بشكل صارخ، بعد أن صرح مسؤول ياباني أن بلاده من المحتمل أن تقدم نوعا من الدعم لتايوان.

وكان وزير الدولة الياباني للدفاع، توشيرو إينو، قال في تصريحات لوسائل إعلام بريطانية، أنه إذا كان البر الرئيسي للصين سيستخدم القوة ضد تايوان، فمن المحتمل أن تقدم اليابان “نوعا من الدعم” لتايوان.

وأضاف إينو أنه غير متأكد “ما إذا كان سيكون الدعم الياباني لتايوان عبارة عن معدات دفاعية، أو ما إذا كان سيكون دعما لوجستيا”.

وتعليقا على هذا، قالت المتحدثة باسم وزارة الخارجية الصينية، ماو نينغ، إن “المسؤول الكبير بوزارة الدفاع اليابانية تدخل بشكل صارخ في الشؤون الداخلية للصين، وأن بكين تعارض ذلك بشدة، وقدمت احتجاجات شديدة لليابان”، وفقا لصحيفة “غلوبال تايمز” الصينية.

وتخضع تايوان (الصين) للحكم بشكل مستقل عن البر الرئيسي للصين منذ عام 1949. وتنظر بكين إلى الجزيرة على أنها مقاطعة تابعة لها، بينما تؤكد تايوان أنها دولة تتمتع بالحكم الذاتي ولكنها لم تصل إلى حد إعلان الاستقلال.

وتعارض بكين أي اتصالات رسمية للدول الأجنبية مع تايبيه، وتعتبر السيادة الصينية على الجزيرة أمرا لا جدال فيه.

(المصدر: سبوتنيك عربي)

Vietnam and Israel sign free trade agreement

Vietnam and Israel signed a free trade agreement on Tuesday, predicting it would quickly boost annual bilateral trade by nearly 50 per cent, Reuters reports.

The agreement was signed in Israel between the two countries’ trade ministers after seven years of negotiations, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade said in a statement.

The agreement is expected to soon bring bilateral trade to $3 billion, the Ministry said, after trade between the countries rose 18 per cent last year to $2.2 billion.

The deal will “facilitate Vietnam’s exports of its products, not only to Israel, but also pave the way for Vietnamese products to access other Middle East, North African and southern European markets,” it said.

It was the second free trade deal Israel has signed with a country in Asia, following South Korea in 2021, and the first with a member of the Association of South-east Asian Nations.

Israel’s Economy Ministry said it would give “a competitive edge and facilitate activity” for Israeli exporters in the Vietnamese market.

Vietnam’s largest exports to Israel include smart phones, footwear and seafood, while it imports electronics and fertilisers.

The agreement will ultimately remove duties on at least 86 per cent of Vietnamese products and 93 per cent of Israeli products, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade said.

Vietnam has signed 16 bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements since the early 1990s, as it seeks to attract more foreign investors to its manufacturing-driven economy.

(Source: MEMO)

Germany adopts its first comprehensive Strategy on China

Over the past few decades, China has achieved strong economic growth, considerable prosperity and an impressive reduction in poverty. In this context, both China and Europe have benefited greatly from increased political, economic and societal exchange.

These positive developments in China contrast with setbacks concerning civil and political rights. And China’s economic policy aims to make it less dependent on other countries, while trying to make others more dependent on China. In terms of foreign policy, China is acting far more assertively and is attempting to reshape the existing rules‑based international order. This is having an impact on European and global security.

We have to deal with the challenges China is posing – and at the same time continue to seek and strengthen exchange and cooperation with China. China remains an indispensable partner for us in climate change mitigation, in resolving the debt crises of individual countries, in fostering food security and thus also in ensuring global stability. China is simultaneously a partner, competitor and systemic rival. The Federal Government Strategy on China takes account of all these dimensions.

What does the Strategy on China say?

The Strategy presents the Federal Government’s views on the status of and prospects for relations with China. It enables the Federal Government to assert our values and interests more effectively in this complex relationship. It presents means and instruments by which cooperation with China can be continued in face of the competition and systemic rivalry with it, without endangering our free democratic way of life, sovereignty, prosperity, partnerships with others or security. It is to provide the framework within which individual federal ministries can give coherence to their policies on China. And it is to form the basis for enhanced coordination on China in Germany, Europe and beyond.

(Source: German Foreign Office)