What would happen if China invaded Taiwan? Washington talks about a terrifying scenario of 'catastrophic losses'

Washington-"Al-Quds Al-Arabi": A war simulation of a large-scale Chinese invasion of the self-governing island of Taiwan predicts "heavy casualties" For all potentially involved partiesincluding the United States and Japan.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted 24 simulations of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026, drawing on historical data and operational research, and the simulation events were included in a comprehensive report released on Monday.

The simulation found that any direct conflict between China and the U.S. would destroy Taiwan and potentially weaken the U.S. on the world stage

In most scenarios, a coalition of the United States, Japan, and Taiwan has been defeated China After three or four weeks of fighting, but after losing dozens of ships, hundreds of airplanes, and tens of thousands of troops.

Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the International Security Program and author of the report, said the big idea of the simulation is that Taiwan could be maintained as an independent state, but he emphasized that the cost would be very high.

In the report, Cancian recommended policies and efforts to deter a future invasion, noting that even if war is deemed too risky for China, the country still contemplates direct conflict.

"Although our analysis suggests that the U.S. and Taiwan will prevail and cause Heavy losses. It's possible to imagine that the Chinese see it differently, and that's why we recommend strengthening deterrence so we don't get into this situation in the first place."

In recent years, China has increased its aggressive rhetoric against Taiwan, which the West considers an independent democratic state that broke away from the mainland in 1949, yet the Communist Party sees Taiwan as part of its territory.

In most scenarios, a coalition of the United States, Japan, and Taiwan defeated China after three or four weeks of fighting, but after losing dozens of ships, hundreds of airplanes, and tens of thousands of troops

The United States adheres to the one-China principle, which states that Taiwan is part of China, but maintains unofficial relations with the island nation, including supplying Taipei with weapons.

At the same time, the United States also adheres to "strategic ambiguity" in the event of a Chinese invasion, making it unclear how U.S. forces would respond.

The CSIS wargames simulation modeled a "Taiwan stands alone" approach, assuming Taipei had no support from the U.S. or Japan - and ended up with a quick Chinese takeover, unlike the U.S. arming Ukraine against Russia, China could block U.S. supplies to the island.

The simulation relies on historical information and data of ground combat operations during an amphibious invasion, as well as speculative models of missile attacks based on the size of the warheads and the amount of space they will cover upon impact.

The process includes a wide range of scenarios, taking into account situations where China performs better than expected or performs poorly in an invasion.

While the United States and Taiwan prevail in most scenarios, there are some conditions for success, according to CSIS, including that Taiwan must stay in line and that U.S. forces must have access to bases in Japan.

The U.S. also adheres to "strategic ambiguity" in the event of a Chinese invasion, making it unclear how U.S. forces would respond

According to a report in The Hill, the model predicted 19 scenarios in which Japan engages in conflict or is ambiguous about defending Taiwan, but Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced last year a historic shift from a defense-only strategy and a significant increase in its annual defense spending.

Despite China's greater presence in the South China Sea, the United States still has the most powerful military worldwide, and several pessimistic conditions would have to be met for a military loss in the war, researchers said.

Cancian said: "What China is trying to do is very difficult." "An amphibious attack on a hostile beach - even though the Taiwan Strait is 100 miles wide - is just too hard."

However, the simulation found that any direct conflict between China and the U.S. would destroy Taiwan and potentially weaken the U.S. on the world stage.

There were some limitations to the model, including that it assesses China based on where its military forces are located within four years. China is pushing to build a "world-class" military in the next two decades, and aims to quadruple its nuclear arsenal in the next 13 years, according to the Ministry of Defense.

The simulation did not assume the scenario of using nuclear weapons, which would mean a different kind of war

CSIS also did not assume a scenario in which nuclear weapons are used, which would mean a very different kind of war, or the possibility of a Chinese blockade of the island.

Another possible scenario is that Taipei quickly surrenders to China and offers little resistance, or that the war lasts more than three or four weeks, meaning more casualties.

Matthew Cancian, who designed the simulation with his father Mark and has simulated other war games at the U.S. Naval War College, said the simulation does not "call" for the United States to "defend or not defend" Taiwan.

"It just shows the cost and potential outcomes of these options," he said.