بعث فوز الرئيس الصيني، شي جين بينغ، بولاية ثالثة رئيسا للبلاد، برسائل “طمأنة” للداخل والخارج في ملف الاقتصاد، و”قلق” لواشنطن من عدة أوجه، حسب ترجيحات متخصصين.
يرصد خبراء سياسيون وأمنيون لموقع “سكاي نيوز عربية” المتوقع حدوثه داخل الصين، وفي علاقاتها مع الولايات المتحدة، وكذلك روسيا، خلال الفترة الجديدة لجين بينغ، وانعكاس ذلك على مسار الحرب في أوكرانيا.
الجمعة، فاز جين بينغ (69 عاما)، بولاية ثالثة غير مسبوقة، إثر تصويت برلماني، ليوطد موقعه كأقوى زعيم للصين منذ أجيال.
المبادئ الخمسة
تشيد الكاتبة الصينية، فيحاء وانغ تشين، بما اعتُبر “إقبالا حارا وغير مسبوق” من البرلمان لإعادة انتخاب جين بينغ، معتبرةً أنه يبرز التضامن والوحدة داخل الصين.
عن القادم تقول: “نتطلّع إلى الاستقرار والاستمرار في تنفيذ السياسات والاستفادة من الموارد المتنوعة، كما لن تغيّر الصين المبادئ الخمسة للتعايش السلمي في تعاملها مع العالم”.
في عام 1954، طرحت الصين هذه المبادئ: الاحترام المتبادل للسيادة ووحدة الأراضي، عدم الاعتداء المتبادل، عدم التدخّل في الشؤون الداخلية بصورة متبادلة، المساواة والمنفعة المتبادلة، والتعايش السلمي.
الخبير الاقتصادي، عبدالنبي عبد المطلب، يصف إعادة الانتخاب بأنها “رسالة طمأنة للعالم أن الصين ستظلّ مستقرّة اقتصاديا لخمس سنوات على الأقل؛ وهو ما يحفظ الثقة في مبادراتها العالمية، وفي مُقدّمتها مبادرة الحزام والطريق”.
وعلى المستوى الداخلي، سيدفع إعادة انتخاب جين بينغ وتيرة الإنتاج لتعويض خسائر جائحة كورونا، لتحقق الصين هدفها في الوصول إلى معدل نمو يتجاوز 5 بالمئة هذا العام.
شد وجذب مع واشنطن
حول انعكاس هذا الحدث على العلاقة المتوترة مع واشنطن، يتوقع رئيس المركز الأوروبي لمكافحة الإرهاب والاستخبارات في ألمانيا، جاسم محمد “استمرار الشد والجذب والسياسة التنافسية، خاصة في بحر الصين الجنوبي“.
في هذه الزاوية، تتهم فيحاء وانغ تشين واشنطن بأنها “تستفز” بكين في عدة قضايا، منها إصرارها على زيارة رئيسة مجلس النواب الأميركي السابقة نانسي بيلوسي، إلى تايوان رغم رفض بكين، وما يخص التعامل مع المنطاد الصيني الذي “انحرف” مساره ودخل الأجواء الأميركية.
على هذا، اعتبرت أنه “من حق الحكومة الصينية الدفاع عن السيادة الوطنية”، وفي نفس الوقت، فإنها “لم تغلق باب التشاور والتعاون مع واشنطن مئة بالمئة”.
حرب أوكرانيا
أحد ملفات التوتر بين بكين وواشنطن هو حرب أوكرانيا، واتهامات واشنطن بأن الصين قد تسلم أسلحة لروسيا.
يعلق جسام محمد بأن انتخاب جين بينغ من شأنه أن يعزّز تحالف الصين مع روسيا، وفي نفس الوقت، ستواصل الصين البحث عن “تحقيق التوازن بين علاقاتها بروسيا وعلاقتها بدول أوروبا”.
The U.S. is expected to face a “complex” security environment and will need to work to confront two “critical” strategic challenges: rising powers, like China, seeking dominance in the global order, and challenges like climate change, which could “intersect” and intensify their national security implications, the U.S. intelligence community assessed.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Wednesday released its 2023 annual threat assessment, which warned of threats against the U.S. posed by China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. It also warned of global challenges like climate change and evolving technologies that could have the potential to “disrupt” traditional business and society, while creating “unprecedented vulnerabilities.”
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines appears during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“These two strategic challenges will intersect and interact in unpredictable ways, leading to mutually reinforcing effects that could challenge our ability to respond, but that also will introduce new opportunities to forge collective action with allies and partners, including non-state actors,” the report states.
China
As for China, the U.S. intelligence community said the Chinese Communist Party will continue its efforts to make China the “preeminent power in East Asia and a major power on the world stage.”
Officials said that Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his third term, will work to press Taiwan on unification and will seek to “undercut U.S. influence” by driving “wedges between Washington and its partners.”
“At the same time, China’s leaders probably will seek opportunities to reduce tensions with Washington when they believe it suits their interests,” the report states.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Biden shake hands as they meet on the sidelines of the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, on Nov. 14, 2022. (REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)
The intelligence community warned that Beijing is “increasingly” combining its growing military power with its economic, technological, and diplomatic influence to “strengthen CCP rule, secure what it views as its sovereign territory and regional preeminence, and pursue global influence.”
With regard to Taiwan, the intelligence community warned that the PRC is using “coordinated, whole-of-government tools” as it seeks to assert sovereignty over Taiwan. Officials warned that China may build on its actions from 2022, and include more Taiwan Strait centerline crossings or missile overflights of Taiwan.
Officials also warned that if China succeed in gaining control over Taiwan, it would have “wide-ranging effects, including disruption to global supply chains for semiconductor chips because Taiwan dominates production of cutting-edge chips.”
As for China’s military, the intelligence community said Beijing is “accelerating” the development of key capabilities that it believes the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) needs to “confront the United States in a large-scale, sustained conflict.” The PLA efforts are designed to “deter U.S. intervention in a future cross-Strait crisis,” officials said.
Officials also warned that Beijing is bolstering its domestic defense production capabilities for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and advanced conventional weapons. The intelligence community also warned that China is building hundreds of new ICBM silos.
Members of China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force let out a yell as they march in formation during a parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
“Beijing worries that bilateral tension, U.S. nuclear modernization, and PLA’s advancing conventional capabilities have increased the likelihood of a U.S. first strike,” the report states. “Beijing’s heightened confidence in its nuclear deterrent is likely to bolster its resolve and intensify conventional conflicts.”
Meanwhile, the intelligence community assessed that China will remain the “top threat” to U.S. technological competitiveness.
“China is central to global supply chains in a range of technology sectors, including semiconductors, critical minerals, batteries, solar panels, and pharmaceuticals,” the report states. “China’s dominance in these markets could pose a significant risk to U.S. and Western manufacturing and consumer sectors if the Government of China was able to adeptly leverage its dominance for political or economic gain.”
As for China’s malign influence operations, the U.S. intelligence community explained that the CCP uses a “sophisticated array of covert, overt, licit, and illicit means to try to soften U.S. criticism, shape U.S. power centers’ views of China, and influence policymakers at all levels of government.”
And with regard to cyber and technology, the U.S. intelligence community assesses that China represents the “broadest, most active, and persistent cyber espionage threat to U.S. Government and private-sector networks.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping is one of multiple state officials arguing that China’s COVID-19 numbers have peaked. (Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)
“China’s cyber pursuits and its industry’s export of related technologies increase the threats of aggressive cyber operations against the U.S. homeland, suppression of the free flow of information in cyberspace — such as U.S. web content — that Beijing views as threatening to the CCP’s hold on power, and the expansion of technology-driven authoritarianism globally,” the report states.
Officials warn that China is “capable of launching cyberattacks that could disrupt critical infrastructure services within the United States, including against oil and gas pipelines, and rail systems.”
“China leads the world in applying surveillance and censorship to monitor its population and repress dissent,” the report states.” Beijing conducts cyber intrusions that are targeted to affect U.S. and non-U.S. citizens beyond its borders — including journalists, dissidents, and individuals it views as threats — to counter views it considers critical of CCP narratives, policies, and actions.”
Officials also warned that China is rapidly expanding and improving its artificial intelligence and big data analytics capabilities, which could expand beyond domestic use.
Russia
Shifting to Russia, the U.S. intelligence community warned that Moscow will remain a “formidable and less predictable challenge to the United States in key areas during the next decade but still will face a range of constraints.”
“Russia probably does not want a direct military conflict with U.S. and NATO forces, but there is potential for that to occur,” the intelligence community assessed. “Russian leaders thus far have avoided taking actions that would broaden the Ukraine conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders, but the risk for escalation remains significant.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin gives his annual state of the nation address in Moscow on Feb. 21, 2023. (Sergei Karpukhin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
Officials assess that Russia will continue to employ military, security, malign influence, cyber and intelligence tools to “undermine the interests of the United States and its allies.”
As for the relationship between China and Russia, the intelligence community assesses the two states will “maintain their strategic ties driven by their shared threat perceptions of the United States.”
Officials warn the relationship between China and Russia creates “potential threats in areas such as security collaboration, specifically arms sales and joint exercises, and diplomacy, where each country has used its veto power on the UN Security Council against U.S. interests.”
The intelligence community said Russia maintains the “largest and most capable nuclear weapons stockpile, and it continues to expand and modernize its nuclear weapons capabilities.”
Russian nuclear material security also remains a concern, despite improvements to material protection, control, and accounting at Russia’s nuclear sites since the 1990s,” the report states.
And while China represents one of the greatest threats to U.S. national security, officials said Russia, too, presents “one of the most serious foreign influence threats to the United States,” due to its intelligence services and influence tools that seek to sow discord in the U.S. and influence U.S. voters and decision-making.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Beijing, China on Feb. 4, 2022. (Alexei Druzhinin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
Iran
Officials said Iran will continue to threaten U.S. people directly and via proxy attacks, particularly in the Middle East, and remains committed to developing “surrogate networks inside the United States, an objective it has pursued for more than a decade.”
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, speaks with Gen. Ahmad Reza Radan on Jan. 7, 2023. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)
Officials say Iran is “not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device,” but warned Tehran has “accelerated the expansion of its nuclear program.”
“If Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials probably will consider further enriching uranium up to 90 percent,” the report states.
Iran also represents a “major threat” to U.S. networks and data, due to its capabilities and willingness to conduct “aggressive cyber operations.”
North Korea
The U.S. intelligence community assessed that North Korea is continuing its efforts to enhance its nuclear capabilities, targeting the U.S. and its allies.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends a politburo meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea in Pyongyang on April 11, 2020. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File)
Officials warned that North Korea’s military “will pose a serious threat to the United States and its allies by continuing to invest in niche capabilities” designed to provide Kim Jong Un with a “range of options to deter outside intervention, offset enduring deficiencies in the country’s conventional forces, and advance his political objectives through coercion.”
Kim Jong Un remains “strongly committed” to expanding North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal and maintaining nuclear weapons as a “centerpiece of his national security structure,” the report states.
Officials also warned that North Korea’s chemical or biological weapons “remain a threat.” The report states that the intelligence community is “concerned” that North Korea “may use such weapons during a conflict or in an unconventional or clandestine attack.”
Climate Change
The U.S. intelligence community marked climate change as a threat, saying it will “increasingly exacerbate risks to U.S. national security interests” as the “physical impacts increase and geopolitical tensions mount about the global response to the challenge.”
“As temperatures rise and more extreme climate effects manifest, there is a growing risk of conflict over resources associated with water, arable land, and the Arctic,” the report states, adding that tensions are also rising between countries over climate financing.
The report states that geopolitical tensions between countries about how to accelerate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are “likely to grow,” and countries will compete to try to control resources and dominate the new technologies needed for a “global transition to low-carbon energy.”
COVID-19 and Health Security
Infectious disease was also included in the assessment following the COVID-19 global pandemic.
The intelligence community said COVID “remains one of the most significant threats to global public health, at a cost of more than 6.5 million lives lost and trillions of dollars in lost economic output to date.”
This aerial view shows the campus of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei province on May 27, 2020. (HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP via Getty Images)
“Countries globally remain vulnerable to the emergence or introduction of a novel pathogen that could cause a devastating new pandemic,” the report states.
As for the origins of COVID-19, the report states that the intelligence community “continues to investigate” how COVID first infected humans.
“All agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible explanations for the origin of COVID-19: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident,” the report states. “Beijing continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information, and blame other countries, including the United States.”
Terrorism
U.S. citizens and U.S. interests “at home and abroad” will face a “persistent and increasingly diverse threat” from terrorism during the next year, the report says.
“Individuals and cells adhering to ideologies espoused by ISIS, al-Qa‘ida, or the transnational Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists (RMVE) movement pose a significant terrorist threat to U.S. persons, facilities, and interests,” the report states. It said Iran and Lebanese Hizballah “remain committed to conducting terrorist attacks and could seek to do so on U.S. soil.”
Taliban fighters guard the site of an explosion in Kabul, Afghanistan, on June 18, 2022. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi) (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)
As for ISIS, the IC assessed that the group seeks to “rebuild capabilities and replenish its ranks,” and said its ideology will “continue to inspire attacks,” including in the U.S.
With regard to Al Qaeda, the IC assessed that the threat the terrorist organization poses in Afghanistan will “depend on the Taliban.”
أمد/ واشنطن – وكالات: أفاد تقرير لوكالة الاستخبارات المركزية الأميركية، بأن الصين ستحافظ على تعاونها مع روسيا، بهدف مواصلة محاولة تحدي الولايات المتحدة، على الرغم من المخاوف الدولية بشأن حرب أوكرانيا.
وقالت الوكالة في تقريرها السنوي بشأن التهديدات التي تواجهها واشنطن، إنه “على الرغم من رد الفعل العالمي العنيف على الدخول في أوكرانيا، فإن الصين ستحافظ على تعاونها الدبلوماسي والدفاعي والاقتصادي والتكنولوجي مع روسيا لمواصلة محاولة تحدي الولايات المتحدة، حتى لو كانت ستحد من الدعم العلني (لروسيا)”.
صدر التقرير بالتزامن مع شهادة مسؤولي أجهزة الاستخبارات الأميركية أمام لجنة المخابرات بمجلس الشيوخ، الأربعاء.
ركز التقرير إلى حد كبير على التهديدات من الصين وروسيا، وخلص إلى تقييم أن بكين ستستمر في استخدام أصولها العسكرية وغيرها من الأصول لتهديد منافسيها في بحر الصين الجنوبي، وأنها ستبني على الإجراءات التي اتخذت العام الماضي، والتي يمكن أن تشمل المزيد من العبور في مضيق تايوان أو خرق المجال الجوي للجزيرة.
الصين أولوية استخباراتية أميركية وقالت مديرة الاستخبارات الوطنية الأميركية أفريل هاينز، مستشار الاستخبارات الرئيسي للرئيس جو بايدن، إنه “ربما لا داعي للقول إن جمهورية الصين الشعبية، التي تتحدى الولايات المتحدة بشكل متزايد، اقتصادياً وتكنولوجياً وسياسياً وعسكرياً، في جميع أنحاء العالم، تظل أولويتنا القصوى”.
وأضافت هاينز في إفادتها أمام مجلس الشيوخ يوم الأربعاء، أنه لتحقيق رؤية الرئيس الصيني شي جين بينغ لجعل الصين قوة كبرى على المسرح العالمي، فإن الحزب الشيوعي الصيني “مقتنع بشكل متزايد بأنه لا يمكنه فعل ذلك إلا على حساب القوة والنفوذ الأميركيين”.
وتابعت: “السنوات القليلة المقبلة حاسمة إذ تشتد المنافسة الاستراتيجية مع الصين وروسيا خاصة حول كيفية تطور العالم، وما إذا كان يمكن كبح والتصدي لصعود الاستبداد”.
“حرب استنزاف طاحنة” وأضافت رئيسة الاستخبارات الوطنية الأميركية، أن روسيا ربما لا تسعى إلى صراع مع الولايات المتحدة وحلف شمال الأطلسي (الناتو)، لكن الحرب في أوكرانيا تنطوي على “مخاطر كبيرة” لحدوث ذلك، وأن هناك “احتمالاً حقيقياً” لأن تؤدي الإخفاقات العسكرية الروسية في أوكرانيا إلى إلحاق الضرر بمكانة الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين محلياً، مما يزيد من احتمالية التصعيد.
ووصفت هاينز الحرب في أوكرانيا بـ”حرب استنزاف طاحنة”، وقالت إن المخابرات الأميركية لا تتوقع أن يتعافى الجيش الروسي بدرجة كافية هذا العام لتحقيق مكاسب كبيرة على الأرض. وقاومت الصين جهود الولايات المتحدة لإجبارها على الامتثال للعقوبات الغربية ضد روسيا، مما أدى إلى تعميق تحالفها مع موسكو، تقرير الاستخبارات المركزية الأميركية، في حين يقول مسؤولو إدارة بايدن إن “الصين تدرس ما إذا كانت ستقدم مساعدة عسكرية لروسيا في غزو أوكرانيا”.
ويسلط التقييم الاستخباراتي الاميركي، المؤلف من 39 صفحة والمؤرخ في 6 فبراير، الضوء على كل شيء، بدءاً من التهديدات الوطنية، إلى مخاطر الهجمات الإلكترونية، ومخاطر تغير المناخ، والجريمة المنظمة.
لكن، من الواضح أنه حتى في الوقت الذي يتحدى فيه الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا الولايات المتحدة، فإن التهديد الأساسي هو الصين، التي “لديها القدرة على محاولة تغيير النظام العالمي القائم على القواعد في كل مجال وعبر مناطق متعددة”.
ويستشهد التقييم الاستخباراتي بالقدرة العسكرية المتنامية للصين، وتراكمها في الفضاء وأسلحة الدمار الشامل، وهيمنتها في كل شيء من سلاسل التوريد العالمية إلى المعادن الهامة ومن المستحضرات الصيدلانية إلى الألواح الشمسية.
قدرات عسكرية صينية في الفضاء كما قدم تقرير مكتب رئيس الاستخبارات الوطنية، تحذيرات جديدة بشأن القدرات العسكرية الفضائية الصينية والروسية، التي تهدف إلى مهاجمة الأقمار الصناعية الأميركية.
ووفقاً للتقرير، عمليات الفضاء “ستكون جزءاً لا يتجزأ من الحملات العسكرية المحتملة لجيش التحرير الشعبي”، في إشارة إلى الجيش الصيني. وقال إن الصين تنشر أسلحة أرضية وفضائية مضادة للأقمار الصناعية.
وأفاد بأن “الصين لديها بالفعل قدرات أرضية مضادة للفضاء بما في ذلك أنظمة الحرب الإلكترونية، وأسلحة الطاقة الموجهة”، وكذلك الصواريخ المضادة للأقمار الصناعية “التي تهدف إلى تعطيل وإتلاف وتدمير الأقمار الصناعية المستهدفة”.
وبالمثل، تواصل روسيا تدريب قوتها الفضائية العسكرية ونشر أسلحة جديدة مضادة للأقمار الصناعية “لتعطيل وتقويض القدرات الفضائية للولايات المتحدة وحلفائها”.
كذلك، لفت الجنرال بول ناكاسوني قائد وكالة الاستخبارات الوطنية في إفادته، إلى أن الصين تأخذ “درجة مخاطرة” أعلى في الاستيلاء على حقوق الممتلكات الفكرية الأميركية.
The U.S. is pushing back on the idea it wants to suppress China and said it doesn’t want to separate the two economies, according to a State Department spokesperson’s comments.
The spokesperson was responding to a CNBC request for comment on Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s remarks Tuesday. Qin claimed U.S. calls for “establishing guardrails” on the relationship meant that China should not react.
“We have made it clear we do not seek to contain China or have a new Cold War,” the U.S. State Department spokesperson said.
The spokesperson pointed to Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s comments last year that said the U.S. doesn’t seek to stop China from growing its economy or “advancing the interests of its people.”
“He also said we do not want to sever China’s economy from ours, though China is pursuing asymmetric decoupling,” the spokesperson said.
Tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated in the last few years. In a sign of some stabilization in the relationship, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden met in person in November.
However, the appearance of an alleged Chinese spy balloon over the U.S. forced Blinken to postpone his trip to Beijing last month. China claims the balloon was for weather research and got blown off course.
Women around the world will celebrate International Women’s Day on Wednesday. In Russia, flower sales reportedly double as women are gifted blooms. In China, women get the day off work. And in Uganda, government agencies hold national celebrations for women.
In European and Latin American countries, March 8 has been a day to rally in support of gender equality and against violence toward women.
But in the United States, the day is treated much like any other. My friends and I don’t celebrate over brunches or give cards and flowers. In my experience, women in the United States are missing out.
International Women’s Day is an opportunity to revel in a day of sisterhood and bond with the important women in our lives.
When I’ve been in my home country of India on IWD, I have joined family and friends in making it a joyous and festive day.
One of my favorite memories is celebrating with the young daughters of my friends, who joined us at a lunch where we shared stories of what generations of women have achieved. We talked about everything from the right to vote to being heads of governments and being told how to think to becoming thought leaders.
My friends and I also mark the day by volunteering for nonprofits and contributing to charities that support women’s rights. We know that many women are struggling with issues of physical safety, insecurity over food and shelter, and lack of access to education and health care. There is still much to strive for to make girls and women feel safe and to realize their dreams.
The United Nations recognized the day for the first time in 1975. Several countries, including Cambodia, Guinea-Bissau and Ukraine, now celebrate IWD as a national holiday.
This year, the theme of IWD is #EmbraceEquity, and the aim is to work for “equity–based solutions” that “take into account the diverse lived experiences of individuals and communities, adapting services and policies according to these differences.”
Here are some ways to join the cause and mark this day:
Donate or volunteer: There are many community groups helping girls and women. Pick a cause, learn about it and support a group helping with it. Certain issues such as access to clean water, sanitation and education disproportionately affect women.
Support global campaigns for gender equity:UN Women is one of many organizations that are championing women’s empowerment.
Celebrate!: You can join events that will be held in cities around the globe or create your own celebration.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese departs for India today, the world’s fifth largest and fastest growing major economy.
Minister for Trade and Toursim will lead a delegation to improve two-way trade between our countries and is accompanied by Minister for Trade and Tourism, Don Farrell, and Minister for Resources, Madeleine King.
It’s the first visit by an Australian prime minister in six years and comes on the heels of the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA), which entered into force in December.
ECTA takes advantage of the complementary nature of our economic relationship, creating jobs and opportunities in both countries.
Under ECTA, there is expanded work, study and travel opportunities for Indians in Australia.
More than 85 per cent of Australian goods exports to India are now tariff-free, rising to 90 per cent over the next six years. And 96 per cent of imports from India are now tariff-free — a figure that will reach 100 per cent in four years.
India is Australia’s sixth-largest trading partner, fourth-largest export market and second-largest export market for education.[1]
Our cooperation is growing exponentially — in economic, social and cultural links, and in education, technology, energy, and defence.
During this trip the Prime Minister will visit Ahmedabad, Mumbai and New Delhi. It continues a long line of prime ministerial visits to the sub-continent since Sir Robert Menzies first travelled there in 1950.[2] Formal trade relations began several years earlier with the opening of the Trade Office in Sydney in 1941. This later became the Consulate General of India.
In 1968, Prime Minister Indira Ghandi became the first Indian prime minister to visit Australia and many state visits have been made both ways over the last 70 years by governors-general, foreign ministers, deputy prime ministers and other government officials.
Visits like today’s are essential to strengthening the Australia-India relationship, a relationship with a strong familial component.
The Indian community in Australia is our fastest-growing diaspora, with the latest census showing 976,000 or 3.8 per cent of Australia’s population identify as having Indian heritage. This includes 673,000 people, or 2.6 per cent of our population, who are Indian born.[3]
Prime Minister Modi will visit Australia this year for the Quad Leaders’ Summit, and Prime Minister Albanese will return to India in September to attend the G20 Summit.
China’s foreign minister says China-US relations have “seriously deviated” while warning of potential conflict.
“Containment and suppression will not make America great. It will not stop the rejuvenation of China,” said Qin Gang.
Mr Qin, China’s former ambassador to the US, held his first press conference as foreign minister on Tuesday.
The spy balloon saga has heightened tensions between the superpowers despite recent efforts to improve ties.
“It [the US] regards China as its primary rival and the most consequential geopolitical challenge. This is like the first button in the shirt being put wrong,” said Mr Qin, speaking on the sidelines of the annual meeting of China’s parliament in Beijing.
The foreign minister was responding to a question on whether a healthy China-US relationship was still possible as differences between the countries grew.
The US called for establishing “guardrails”, but what it really wants is for China to not hit back with words or actions when provoked, Mr Qin added.
He was referring to US President Joe Biden’s comments last month that the US would “compete fully with China but [is] not looking for conflict”.
Mr Qin said: “If the US does not put on the brakes and continues to roar down the wrong road, no amount of guardrails can stop the derailment and overturning, and it is bound to fall into conflict and confrontation. Who will bear its disastrous consequences?”
He also said the diplomatic crisis caused by the balloon incident could have been averted but the US acted with “the presumption of guilt”.
Washington has previously described the suspected spy balloon as a “clear violation of US sovereignty”. Beijing admitted the object belonged to them, but said it was a civilian airship blown off-course.
Relations between the two countries deteriorated during former US President Donald Trump’s administration, which launched a trade war against China in 2018. The two superpowers continue to clash on various issues, including Taiwan, China’s militarisation of the South China Sea and the origins of Covid.
Mr Qin’s comments follow Chinese President Xi Jinping’s unusually direct rebuke of the US on Monday.
Mr Xi said “Western countries led by the US had implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression” against China and that this brought “severe challenges” to the country.
On Tuesday, Mr Qin said an “invisible hand” was driving the Ukraine crisis but did not name any country or individual. He reiterated that China had not provided weapons to either side of the Russia-Ukraine war and called for peace talks to resume.
However, he asked: “Why should the US demand that China refrain from supplying arms to Russia when it sells arms to Taiwan?”
The Ukraine crisis has reached a “critical juncture”, he said.
“Either a ceasefire will stop the war, restore peace and embark on a political settlement, or fuel the fire, expand the crisis and drag it into the abyss of losing control.”
Mr Qin, 56, was named China’s foreign minister in December 2022 and is one of the youngest appointees to this post in the country’s history. He replaced Wang Yi, who was promoted to the politburo of the ruling Communist Party in October that year.
A trusted aide of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Mr Qin is well known as a tough-talking diplomat.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping name-checked the United States in remarks during the annual session of parliament under way in Beijing this week, saying it was leading Western countries in an effort to encircle and suppress China.
The rare explicit comment was followed on Tuesday by a barrage of scorn and criticism aimed squarely at Washington from China’s new foreign minister and former ambassador to the U.S., Qin Gang.
Analysts said the verbal blitz may signal a new level of unhappiness from Beijing with the United States, and could foreshadow fresh policy actions.
U.S. accused of ‘containment’
On Monday, Xi visited a breakout session of delegates to the legislative advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, which meets along side the National People’s Congress.
“Western countries led by the U.S. have implemented comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development,” Xi was quoted as saying.
The U.S. has, in recent months, broadened its crackdown on China’s semiconductor industry, and looked to expand and revitalize its alliances in Asia. In addition to the Quad, it is set to announce deepened cooperation with AUKUS, a trilateral security pact it formed in 2021, and just last month announced expanded access to bases in the Philippines.
Top leaders in China rarely single out other countries or leaders by name for criticism, preferring to leave it implicit or refer vaguely to “some countries” or “individual countries.”
On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Qin Gang leveled criticism directly at the United States for its policies on China, Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, and Ukraine, to name a few. He even blasted the recent string of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, designed to curb inflation at home, for creating debt crises in other countries.
“The U.S. claims it wants to ‘compete to win’ with China, and does not seek conflict. But in fact, the so-called ‘competition’ by the U.S. is all-round containment and suppression, a zero-sum game of life and death,” Qin said.
Qin also slammed the U.S. for talking about respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity when it comes to Ukraine but not Taiwan, a self-governed island that Beijing says is part of China. “Why does the U.S. ask China not to provide weapons to Russia while it keeps selling arms to Taiwan?” Qin said.
The Biden administration has repeatedly said it intends to compete with China and wants dialogue to put “guardrails” around the relationship, so that it does not veer into conflict. Qin said U.S. demands were unreasonable.
“When the U.S. says it wants to ‘install guardrails and have ‘no conflict’ in China-U.S. relations, it really means that the U.S. requires China not to fight back when hit or scolded, but this cannot be done!” he said.
Qin blamed the deterioration in China-U.S. relations on Washington, and said it was incumbent upon the United States to turn things around.
“If the United States does not hit the brakes, but continues to speed down the wrong path, no amount of guardrails can prevent derailing, and there will surely be conflict and confrontation,” he said.
Level of unhappiness could lead to ‘substantive actions’
Manoj Kewalramani, with the Takshashila Institution in India, follows the language of China’s leaders and propaganda closely. He said the explicit naming of America by Xi was a signal of the level of unhappiness.
“It’s like when you’re angry with your spouse, or your kid, you start middle-naming them, you know?” he said.
Kewalramani said the balloon crisis angered Chinese officials and may have been the trigger for this shift. Still, he did not think China’s policy toward the U.S. would change substantively.
But Scott Kennedy, a China hand at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is not so sure.
“Nothing Xi Jinping or the Chinese leadership in general says about foreign policy or the U.S. in particular is by accident,” he said.
“By directly pointing to the U.S. as the source of major problems around the world, by name, you feel like that sets the possibility for China to potentially take substantive actions that they haven’t been willing to take before,” he said.
It also “sets a tone that other officials within China will have to follow.”
قال وزير الخارجية الصيني تشين قانغ، الثلاثاء، إن بكين تحترم تماما دول الشرق الأوسط وتعتبرها قيّمة على شؤونها الخاصة، وإنه ليس لديها أي نية لملء ما يسمى “الفراغ”.
وأضاف على هامش الاجتماع السنوي للبرلمان في بكين، إن الصين ستستمر في الدفاع عن العدالة ودعم الدول في هذه المنطقة، في سعيها لتسوية سياسية للقضايا الساخنة من خلال الحوار والتشاور.
وفي الاجتماع ذاته، تطرق تشين إلى الأزمة الأوكرانية، معتبر أن “يدا خفية” تحركها على ما يبدو من أجل إطالة أمد الصراع وتصعيده.
وأضاف أن “اليد الخفية تستخدم أزمة أوكرانيا لخدمة جداول أعمال جيوسياسية معينة”، ودعا إلى بدء الحوار في أقرب وقت ممكن.
وأردف وزير الخارجية الصيني: “الصراع والعقوبات والضغط لن تحل المشكلة. يجب أن تبدأ محادثات السلام في أقرب وقت ممكن، ويجب احترام المخاوف الأمنية المشروعة لجميع الأطراف”.
ويأتي تكرار تشين لموقف الصين من حرب أوكرانيا وسط توتر متزايد بين بكين والاتحاد الأوروبي، الذي شكك في صدق الصين كوسيط عندما رفضت إعلان روسيا على أنها المعتدي في الصراع.
وقال تشين أيضا إن بكين لم تقدم أسلحة إلى جانبي الصراع في أوكرانيا، وسط تحذيرات شديدة من المسؤولين الأميركيين بشأن “عواقب” غير محددة على الصين إذا أرسلت عتادا فتاكا إلى روسيا.
وأضاف: “(الصين) ليست طرفا في الأزمة ولم تقدم أسلحة إلى جانبي الصراع. فما أساس هذا الحديث عن اللوم والعقوبات والتهديدات ضد الصين؟ هذا أمر غير مقبول تماما”.
As host to foreign ministers from the Group of 20 nations last week, Narendra Modi played the traditionally neutral role of an Indian prime minister, refusing to take sides between Russia and the U.S.
Beneath its professed neutrality, though, India has begun pivoting westward. This has less to do with Russia, where India has longstanding ties, than with China, which both India and the West increasingly see as a principal adversary.
This pivot is visible in India’s closer security cooperation with Australia, Japan and the U.S. in the so-called Quad. Potentially as important, the pivot is also showing up in trade policy.
India’s trade barriers have long been among the highest of major economies. Its average “most favored nation” applied tariff in 2021 stood at 18.3%, one of the highest among major economies. That’s actually up from 2014, a result of Mr. Modi’s efforts to encourage domestic and foreign companies to manufacture more in India.
Yet, while keeping its MFN tariffs high, India since 2021 has embarked on a series of negotiations to reduce tariffs, quotas and other barriers with selected partners. Last year, free-trade deals with the United Arab Emirates and with Australia came into force, the first such deals in roughly a decade.
Negotiations on deals with the U.K., Canada and the European Union are all well advanced. In these talks, India has typically sought more access for its professional services while partners have pursued more access for agricultural and manufactured products.
The high MFN tariff is aimed at “nontransparent economies who are dumping really low-quality, substandard goods at really low prices, which is hurting the Indian economy and Indian manufacturing,” Piyush Goyal, India’s minister of commerce and industry, said in an interview, in a reference to China. “The tariffs are not meant to be a detriment, ideally, to…Europe or America or Canada or Japan or Korea. We are looking at having more trading relationships, bilaterally or collectively, with the developed world with whom we want more and more open borders.”
In other words, India wants more protection from China, and freer trade with everyone else. That’s a lot like the U.S., except India starts with high barriers and is lowering them for friends while the U.S. starts with low barriers and is raising them on China. It is a more selective model of free trade than the universal model idealized since the early 1990s.
Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister, pursued a policy of import substitution under which imports routinely required licenses.PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Trade advocates, often disappointed by India in the past, are cautious about this latest opening. “It is definitely a positive step by India,” said Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The question is, how far are they willing to go?”
The deals to date still spare many sectors deemed sensitive by India. Its pact with Australia grants duty-free access to 70% of Indian tariff lines after 10 years. Free-trade deals typically cover 95% to 98% of tariff lines, Mr. Bown said.
But, as with Mr. Modi’s domestic reforms, his external liberalization needs to be judged relative to India’s traditions, in which nonalignment and protectionism were virtually hard-wired. During the movement for independence from the U.K. in the early 1900s, Indians would boycott British imports in favor of homemade products, or Swadeshi. Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister, pursued a policy of import substitution under which imports routinely required licenses.
India began to dismantle the “license raj” in the early 1990s. Still, India found its access to foreign markets compromised as the U.S. and Europe pursued regional trade deals with their neighbors, and then by China’s admission into the World Trade Organization in 2001, said Suman Bery, vice chairman of NITI Aayog, an Indian government think tank. “India gained less than its partners did,” he said. “It is trying to navigate a world reshaped by China with large and growing trade blocs.”
Trade liberalization stalled by the mid-2000s. The Doha Round of global negotiations collapsed largely over the refusal by emerging markets, led by India, to lower barriers to agricultural imports.
Mr. Bery said India’s renewed interest in trade reflects the growing international success of Indian firms and the Indian diaspora. The chief executives of Microsoft Corp., Google parent Alphabet Inc., and International Business Machines Corp. were all born and educated in India. “They have proven themselves in the most competitive environment, and so we should have that confidence ourselves,” Mr. Bery said.
India also wants less dependence on China. In 2019, it dropped out of negotiations with 15 other Asia-Pacific nations that led to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, over concerns Chinese imports would squeeze out Indian manufacturers at home. “We walked out of it when we realized that we are not dealing apples-to-apples,” Mr. Goyal said. China “is a nontransparent economy.”
Aam Aadmi Party members hold posters of Indian soldiers who were killed in border clashes with Chinese soldiers.PHOTO: DIVYAKANT SOLANKI/SHUTTERSTOCK
India is using its presidency of the G-20 to promote itself as a gigantic potential market and a trusted partner that, unlike China, is a democracy and doesn’t compel foreign companies to share their technology or ownership with local companies.
Western leaders are also eager to expand economic ties, despite India’s refusal to join Western condemnation of Russia for its invasion of Ukraine or its $60 price cap on Russian oil imports. For the U.S., India’s use of the price cap as leverage to drive down Russia’s oil price and revenue matters more than formally joining the cap.
India’s leaders long stuck to nonalignment because they were wary of American hegemony, grateful for Russia’s support since the 1970s in India’s rivalry with Pakistan, and fearful of driving Russia into China’s arms, said Harsh Pant, vice president of Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based international relations think thank.
“Modi has changed that discourse completely,” he said. “He does not carry the baggage of nonalignment.” Mr. Pant said India recognizes that Russia is “a declining power…You don’t want to put them off completely, but you also realize that there’s nothing really there.”
India’s economic pivot away from China and toward the West faces obstacles. China is now central to Asian supply chains. By raising restrictions on Chinese imports and staying out of RCEP, India has made itself less attractive to global value chains.
And the biggest prize in India’s pursuit of freer trade with the West, the U.S., remains elusive. In 2019, President Donald Trump, despite warm relations with Mr. Modi, removed India from the Generalized System of Preferences, or GSP, under which many products from poor countries entered tariff free, because India wouldn’t guarantee access to its own market. GSP’s congressional authorization has since lapsed. For President Biden, expanding access to the U.S. market, even for geopolitical partners, is contrary to his “worker-centric” trade policy. India is participating in the less formal Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
Mr. Goyal said he would “love” to discuss a free-trade agreement with the U.S. but for now sees no congressional bipartisan support. Nonetheless, he predicted, the U.S.-India relationship will be “a very important geopolitical anchor on which peace and growth both will rest.”
China’s outgoing Premier Li Keqiang has announced the country’s lowest GDP growth target in decades, highlighting the domestic and global challenges the world’s second largest economy still faces despite its decision late last year to ditch draconian anti-Covid measures.
Li set a target of about 5% growth for 2023 during the National People’s Congress on Sunday, while acknowledging the “many difficulties” the economy is facing. The only year in recent history when the government has been less ambitious was in 2020, when it passed on a numerical target because the economywas nearly paralyzed by the initial Covid outbreak.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang speaks during the opening session of China’s National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 5, 2023.Ng Han Guan/AP
“Insufficient demand is still a prominent issue,” Li said Sunday. “Stabilizing employment is tough. And some local governments face big fiscal difficulties.”
Perceived as marginalized by Chinese leader Xi Jinping in recentyears, Li will be formally stepping down during the congress as part of the biggest shake-up to the country’s economic leadership in a decade.
Li is likely to be departing along with a generation of Western educated, reform-minded officials who have influenced economic policy making over the past 10 years. The new team, tipped to be composed of Xi’s close associates, faces the tough task of reviving the economy.
China is in the midst of a historic downturn for the all-important housing market. Consumer spending is sluggish. Unemployment remains high among the youth.
Business confidence has plummeted following an unprecedented regulatory crackdown on the private sector and increased uncertainties about China’s future policy. Relations between the United States and China are at their lowest point in decades, leading to escalating tensions in technology and investment. Foreign investment in China has slumped.
Modest target
In a message rarely heard from top officials,Li hinted in his address to the nation at rising public discontent about the government, calling on the country’s policymakers to “face up to the issues and do its best to improve the government’s work.”
Mass protests erupted late last year across the country, in a rare show of dissent against the ruling Communist Party sparked by anger over its zero-Covid policy. Last month, protests occurred in the central city of Wuhan and northeastern city of Dalian as hundreds of elderly confronted local officials to oppose changes to their health insurance, which had cut their medical benefits significantly.
Nomura analysts said the 5% growth target suggests “the government is conservative but pragmatic about the economic prospects in 2023, with weakening global demand taking a toll on exports, worsening geopolitical tensions and a still-moderate recovery in the housing sector.”
The new State Council, China’s cabinet, is also “taking a lesson” from the substantial miss in growth target last year, they added.
In 2022, the Chinese economy grew by 3%, the second lowest growth in nearly half a century and behind only 2020. It fell well short of the official growth target of “around 5.5%.”
“Having declared the end of pandemic, the leaders are sticking to the slowing GDP growth path in the long term by lowering annual GDP target gradually,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank.
“Moreover, China has been downplaying the numeric GDP target and shifted to balance the quality since President Xi’s era,” he said.
Lower fiscal spending
In Li’s final report on the work of the government, he called forexpanding consumption and set a goal to create around 12 million jobsin towns and cities this year, up from last year’s target of at least 11 million.
Beijing will also allow local governments to issue up to 3.8 trillion yuan ($550 billion) in special bonds in 2023, which will help them build 5G networks, railways, airports and other infrastructure projects, Li added.
But that is lower than last year’s quota of 4.15 trillion yuan ($600 billion) and below market expectations.
The lower target suggests infrastructure growth will slow this year, said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING Group.
The government’s fiscal deficit last year was too high, at 8% to 9% per GDP, which has likely reduced its firepower to fund more infrastructure spending, she explained.
Premier Li also said the government would only raise fiscal spending by 5.6% this year, which is lower than the growth of 6.1% in fiscal spending in 2022.
According to the finance ministry’s latest budget report, local government revenue is expected to grow by only 0.4% this year, an indication of Beijing’s conservative forecast on land sales.
Local governments have relied heavily on land sales in the past as a source of revenue but those receipts contracted by 23% in 2022, dealing a blow to finances already strained by huge Covid spending.
“After three years of pandemic [measures], it could be more than desirable for governments, especially the local governments, to restore fiscal resilience,” said Citi analysts.
“Eyeing … fiscal repair and aware of inflation risks, the government work report provides no hint [of] massive fiscal or monetary stimulus,” they said.
Earlier this month, Liu Guoqiang, a deputy governor at the People’s Bank of China, said the economy needs more policy support, but the central bank will not resort to “flood-like” stimulus measures as it seeks to strike a balance between boosting growth and ensuring price stability.
China is set to increase defense spending this year by 7.2% to 1.56 trillion yuan ($230 billion), according to a draft released Sunday by the Ministry of Finance.
In 2019, China’s defense spending rose by 7.5% to 1.19 trillion yuan.
In a separate report Sunday about government work, Premier Li Keqiang did not mention the Russia-Ukraine war. “We should stay committed to an independent foreign policy of peace,” the report said.
The work report called for “resolute steps to oppose ‘Taiwan independence’” while sticking to Beijing’s call for “peaceful reunification.”
Taiwan is a democratically ruled self-governed island that Beijing claims is part of its territory.
The U.S. government in December authorized over $800 billion in defense spending for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30, 2023. In addition to domestic inflation, the spending plan pointed to the need to counter Chinese and Russian military capabilities.
That’s significantly higher than prior years.
In fiscal year 2022, the U.S. spent $767 billion, or 12% of its budget, on national defense, according to Treasury data. That was about 2% more than the $755 billion spent in 2021, the data showed.
